By CAPosts 01 December, 2020 - 05:59am 30 views
President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) celebrates his second year as president of Mexico with an economy damaged mainly by the closure of activities due to COVID-19, and that increasingly remote the possibility that he will fulfill his promise that the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) reaches an expansion of 4% at the end of its six-year term. Gone are the statements of the head of state where he challenged analysts about his forecasts for productive activity, and even went so far as to say that he was in talks with experts to present an alternative measure to GDP that would reflect issues such as well-being and happiness.
© X90174 Despite having declared that the pandemic suited his government "like a glove", President Andrés Manuel López Obrador has struggled to lessen the impact of COVID on the national economy.
And although the impact of the pandemic It has been global and of historical magnitudes, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned that Mexico will be one of the most damaged economies on the planet with a GDP contraction of close to 9% this 2020, and that it will take several years for the country return to the macroeconomic levels that existed before this crisis. Here are 9 graphs on the performance of the main economic indicators in these two years of AMLO's government 1- GDP had already been dragging a sharp slowdown in the quarters prior to the arrival of the new administration, however, the coup of the COVID was of such magnitude that between April and June 2020 the economy had a historic collapse, according to INEGI data. 2- In matters of public finances, the Mexican government has had difficulties in balancing its budget. This situation has been maintained in recent years, as the budget balance has been in deficit, according to data from the Ministry of Finance. (2020 figures are from January to September). 3- In the absence of tax revenue due to the crisis, the AMLO government has bet on the professionalization of the SAT to obtain resources, and there have even been agreements with large companies such as Walmart, BBVA México and FEMSA to make pending payments to the treasury immediately. (Data from the Ministry of Finance. Figures for 2020 are from January to September). 4- If the president of Mexico has been clear in something, it is that he will not request debt to try to mitigate the impact of the economic crisis or to launch fiscal stimuli that help companies survive the pandemic, however, for the same contraction of the economy, the total public debt of the public sector has maintained its upward trend. (Data from the Ministry of Finance. Figures for 2020 are from January to September). 5- The worst face of the crisis is unemployment, and although the INEGI has not provided information on the second quarter of the year, since the confinement prevented the conducting of face-to-face surveys, President López Obrador has admitted that in that period they lost a million jobs in the formal economy. (Source INEGI)
Video: Economic growth forecast is coming true : AMLO (Dailymotion)
6- If the Mexican economy wants to grow, it is necessary to attract investment . However, the current context of uncertainty will complicate the arrival of new capital to the country in the following months. (Source: Banxico) 7- Although it does not fall within the range of direct influence of the federal government, inflation recently showed a downward trend that allowed Banco de México (Banxico) to apply cuts to its interest rate to treat to stimulate the economy. The projection for the following months is that prices will remain stable. (Source: INEGI) 8- The arrival of AMLO to the presidency, in December 2018, triggered the national consumer confidence to historical levels, however, after the passage of months, expectations have been more moderate. (Source: INEGI) 9- López Obrador constantly mentions the behavior of the exchange rate as a signal that reflects the management of his government, however, this indicator has been more sensitive to external factors such as the future of T-MEC, the impact of COVID-19 in the world and the possibility of a vaccine that stops the spread of infections. (Source: Banxico and Yahoo Finance)