Mexico's economic reactivation is tied to the COVID vaccine


By CAPosts 19 January, 2021 - 05:49am 967 views

Each time further and with greater obstacles. This is how it paints the picture so that in 2021 the Mexican economy can return to normal and stop the loss of thousands of lives and millions of infections, jobs and businesses due to the coronavirus pandemic. And it is that the long-awaited economic reactivation depends on more Mexicans being vaccinated against COVID-19, a process that is fully administered by the government of Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) and that has been questioned by analysts and the private sector for its lack transparency and high risks of being used for electoral purposes

© AFP The Mexican government's vaccination plan contemplates reaching 70% of the immunized population (84 million people) in March 2022.

Expectations have also been complicated by the extension of the red traffic light in the capital of the country and in the State of Mexico (Edomex), which will cause the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to register a contraction in the first quarter of the year, according to Bank of America (BofA). “The CDMX and Edomex are like a quarter of the national economy. The economy probably slowed down in December and it will surely be very weak this month and we believe that the entire quarter of this year we are going to have another contraction, ”explained Carlos Capistrán, Chief Economist for Mexico and Canada at BofA. The manager stressed that the good news is that the vaccination process in Mexico has already begun, so that now the country - and the world - are in a race to vaccinate their population as quickly as possible due to the risk of new versions of the virus continue to appear and increase the cases of contagion. “What is going to happen in 2021 is that we are going to have a race between the number of cases that will increase with strains of the virus that are more contagious and on the other hand the vaccination process. It is a race: to the extent that the vaccination process gains, the economy will recover ”, he assured. Ariane Ortiz-Bollin, VP-Senior Analyst at Moody's Analytics, agreed that there is already a lag in the recovery, but ruled out that massive closures will be decreed in the face of this new wave of infections. However, he highlighted the importance of complying with the vaccination plan decreed by the federal government: “If there is a lag in the vaccine, there would be forecast revisions. Distribution has been slow in the United States, which is not encouraging for Mexico. ”

And what is the plan? For the United States, in the second semester there will be greater economic normality, for Mexico there will be a lag of 6 months compared to that country.

The Secretary of Finance, Arturo Herrera, recently said that the country's total budget for the acquisition of the vaccine is close to 32,000 million pesos (mp), of which 6,000 million pesos have already been paid through two mechanisms: a advance for Covax (which is an initiative of the UN) and pay for the batches that arrive from the pharmaceutical company Pfizer. “We started with 4 types of agreements: the agreement with Covax that will give us rights from April to several tens of millions of vaccines, the agreement with Astra Zéneca that also guarantees us vaccines as of March, and later with two pharmaceutical companies additional individuals, one with CanSino (China) and with Pfizer ”, explained the official on his Twitter account. Herrera added that there is the possibility that Mexico will also acquire doses from Russia, for which an additional contract would have to be made. "As long as we can bring vaccines much faster we will achieve two very important things: guarantee the health of Mexicans and be able to return to economic normality as soon as possible," he said. Capistrán considers Mexico's vaccine portfolio to be good news, since it covers almost the entire population, but points out that it will be until the end of this year when there will be greater mobility in the country. The private sector has said it is willing to help with the distribution of the vaccines without receiving a response from the federal government so far. It also requires the implementation of a national plan that guarantees access to the vaccine for the entire population. The National Chamber of the Transformation Industry (Canacintra) demanded the incorporation of public and private institutions specialized in health in the country within the main decisions, as dictated by the National Health System and to integrate, as stated in the General Law of Health, to all the health authorities of the General Health Council, the Ministry of Health and the state governments. As in the entire world, the federal government is in charge of the logistics to vaccinate the population, however the proximity of the elections to elect governor in 15 states and renew the legislators of the Chamber of Deputies increased the risk that the doses are applied for electoral purposes. This weekend, the person in charge of the Vaccination Plan Against COVID, Miriam Esther Veras Godoy, resigned for "personal reasons", according to the Ministry of Health. In addition, President López Obrador said that Pfizer (one of the laboratories that produces the vaccine) will reduce its deliveries to Mexico in order to help the poorest countries as part of an international agreement. In an interview with Radio Fórmula this Monday, Arturo Herrera said that the Pfizer vaccine will stop arriving for two weeks, but that there are already talks to bring the Russian Sputnik vaccine. The federal government also decided that the brigade members belonging to the group "Servants of the Nation" be vaccinated despite not being medical personnel who are on the front line of the epidemic. Nor has a plan to vaccinate doctors, nurses and other workers belonging to the private hospital sector been announced. The Mexican government's vaccination plan contemplates reaching 70% of the immunized population (84 million people) in March 2022, however, to reach the goal, almost 200,000 vaccines per day should be applied, a figure very far from 5,000 on average currently reported. With information from Luz Elena Marcos and Dainzú Patiño

Source: MSN