Bitcoin Price Analysis: BTC Dumps $2K After Rejection at Critical Resistance, What’s Next?

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CryptoPotato 05 July, 2021 - 03:33am 23 views

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BTC fell by 3.5% today after rolling over from the critical resistance area at 35-36K. As mentioned here yesterday, bitcoin was facing huge resistance upon a mid-term descending trend line, along with the 20-day MA. This led to a breakdown of the short-term ascending price channel that BTC was trading within.

In addition to this, the daily RSI saw another rejection at a major descending trend-line of lower highs (bearish) that started forming in February 2021.

On top, there is another concern for the bulls – the weekend rally was fueled by a very minimal trading volume (as can be seen below). In fact, it was the lowest seen since early May:

As a reminder, we have to see volume levels return to the market for a real bullish breakout. This might explain the correction we are witnessing now, as the bullish weekend wasn’t sustained in terms of sufficient buying volume.

As can be seen below, on the short-term chart, the bitcoin price is now trading inside a perfect symmetrical triangle pattern – the rejection yesterday hit the upper boundary of the triangle (~$35.6K). As of writing these lines, bitcoin finds support on top of the lower angle, amid $34K. Any breakout is likely to pave the next direction for BTC in the short term.

Although tradeable patterns are emerging in the short term, on the longer timeframe, BTC continues to trade sideways between $30K and $42K. It must break this medium-term range to dictate the next overall direction for the market. By then, the trading volume is likely to return to the markets.

Key Support Levels: $34,000, $33,500, $32,700, $31,675, $31,185.

Key Resistance Levels: $34,570, $35,200 – $35,600, $36,375 – $36,620, $38,000.

The first support lies at the lower angle of the triangle at $34,000. Beneath the triangle, further support is followed at $33,500, $32,700 (early July support), $31,675, and $31,185 (downside 1.618 Fib Extension).

On the other side, the first resistance lies at $34,570 (20-day MA). This is followed by $35,200 (upper angle of the triangle) – $35,600 (weekly resistance), $36,375 (50-day MA) – $36,620, $38,000, $38,570 (1.272 Fib Extension), and $39,500.

Again, the daily RSI remains bearish beneath the long-term descending trendline as the bulls fail to establish any continued momentum.

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Bitcoin Holds Support; Faces Resistance at $36K - CoinDesk

CoinDesk 05 July, 2021 - 06:32am

Bitcoin is holding support with initial resistance at $36K.

Bitcoin's Weekend Price Bounce Fades Even as Exchange Balances Drop - CoinDesk

CoinDesk 05 July, 2021 - 05:54am

The number of coins held on exchanges has fallen by more 25,000 in two weeks.

The top cryptocurrency by market value is trading near $34,200 at press time, representing a 3% drop on the day, CoinDesk 20 data show.

The pullback has reversed a significant chunk of the bounce from $32,700 to $36,000 seen in the past three days. It comes amid a decline in the number of coins held on exchanges, a bullish development.

Balance held on centralized exchanges fell to 2.577 million BTC on Sunday, hitting the lowest level since May 16, according to data tracked by Glassnode.

Furthermore, that’s not the only sign wealthy investors are stepping up their bargain hunting. So the odds appear stacked in favor of bulls – especially as the dollar is trading weak in the currency markets despite Friday’s upbeat U.S. employment data.

Bitcoin has mostly moved in the opposite direction to the dollar index (DXY) since the Federal Reserve surprised markets with its early interest-rate hike forecast on June 16. Rate increases make fiat currencies attractive and dilute the appeal of inflation hedges like bitcoin and gold.

The DXY, which tracks the greenback’s value against major currencies, is currently at 92.14, down 0.6% from Friday’s four-month high of 92.74, according to TradingView data.

The greenback may suffer a more profound drop if the minutes of the Fed’s June meeting, scheduled for release later this week, downplay rate-hike prospects.

“Given that the individual forecasts of Federal Reserve officials were not discussed at last month’s FOMC meeting, and Chair Powell played them down, it ought not to be surprising if the minutes were not as hawkish as the [interest rate] dots,” Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex, said in a blog post published on Sunday.

Bitcoin (BTC) Continues Consolidating Inside Range

Yahoo Finance 05 July, 2021 - 02:00am

Its failure to break down in the short-term and subsequent bounce could mean that the current movement is not corrective, thus indicating that the low is in. The movement in the next few days will be crucial in determining the future trend.

During the week of June 28-July 5, BTC did not move significantly in either direction. On the contrary, it ranged between $32,699 and $36,660. It’s still trading above the long-term horizontal support level of $32,600, and has created several long lower wicks below it.

However, technical indicators in the weekly time frame are still bearish. The MACD is negative, the RSI has crossed below 50, and the Stochastic oscillator has made a bearish cross.

The daily chart shows that BTC has been trading inside a range between $31,400 and $40,550 since May 19. The latter is also the 0.382 Fib retracement resistance level and could coincide with a descending resistance line, depending on when it’s reached.

BTC bounced at the support area on June 22, created a higher low on June 26, and has been moving upwards since.

However, technical indicators are not bullish yet. The MACD signal line is negative and the RSI is below 50. However, both are increasing.

In addition to this, the Stochastic oscillator is very close to making a bullish cross (green circle).

There are two potential wave counts in play.

The bearish count suggests that BTC is still in a bearish impulse, one that has been ongoing since the all-time high of $64,895 from April 14.

If the count is correct, BTC would currently be in sub-wave two (black) of wave five (orange).

A potential target for the bottom of the move is found near $19,800.

BTC completed sub-wave two (red) yesterday near the 0.786 Fib retracement resistance level of $33,800. It failed to reach the middle of the channel and broke down instead.

Therefore, for the count to remain valid, BTC would have to break down from the channel soon with a sharp downward movement.

The bullish count indicates that the upward movement is a leading diagonal instead. In this case, BTC would reach a high near $37,500, before breaking down.

Nevertheless, the increase would be a part of wave A (orange) of an A-B-C corrective structure, indicating that the local low is already in.

Whether BTC breaks down from the current support or bounces will likely determine the future trend.

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Bitcoin is holding support with initial resistance at $36K.

The flagship altcoin bounced back strongly above $ 2,250 this week. As of Monday, it stayed above such key support levels with global investors and traders remaining optimistic about Ethereum.

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TA: Bitcoin Correcting Gains, What Could Trigger Fresh Rally

NewsBTC 04 July, 2021 - 10:08pm

Bitcoin climbed higher above the $34,000 and $35,000 resistance levels. BTC even broke the $35,500 level and the 100 hourly simple moving average.

However, the price failed to clear the $36,000 zone. A high was formed near $35,918 before the price started a fresh decline. The price traded below the $35,500 and $35,000 levels. There was a break below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward wave from the $32,735 swing low to $35,920 high.

Moreover, there was a break below a major bullish trend line with support near $35,000 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. The pair is now approaching the $34,000 support and the 100 hourly simple moving average.

The 50% Fib retracement level of the upward wave from the $32,735 swing low to $35,920 high is also near the $34,350 zone. The next key support is near the $34,000 zone. If there is a downside break below the $34,350 and $34,000 support levels, the price could continue to move down.

If bitcoin remains stable above the $34,000 support zone, it could start a fresh increase in the near term. An immediate resistance on the upside is near the $35,000 level and the trend line.

The next key resistance is near $35,250, above which the price could test the $36,000 barrier. Any more gains could lift the price towards the $37,000 resistance.

Hourly MACD – The MACD is slowly gaining pace in the bearish zone.

Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now below the 50 level.

Major Support Levels – $34,350, followed by $34,000.

Major Resistance Levels – $35,000, $35,500 and $36,000.

Aayush is a Senior Forex, Cryptocurrencies and Financial Market Strategist with a background in IT and financial markets. He specialises in market strategies and technical analysis, and has spent over a DECADE as a financial markets contributor and observer. He possesses strong technical analytical skills and is well known for his entertaining and informative analysis of the currency, commodities, Bitcoin and Ethereum markets.

NewsBTC is a cryptocurrency news service that covers bitcoin news today, technical analysis & forecasts for bitcoin price and other altcoins. Here at NewsBTC, we are dedicated to enlightening everyone about bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.

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Bitcoin Supply Held by 'Whale Entities' Hits Two-Month High in Bullish Sign - CoinDesk

CoinDesk 04 July, 2021 - 03:52pm

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Ethereum Price Analysis: ETH Sets a 16-Day High, Is $2500 In Sight?

CryptoPotato 04 July, 2021 - 10:06am

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Following almost 30% weekly gains, ETH sets a 2.5-week high above $2300. Against bitcoin, ETH managed to break last week’s resistance at 0.065 BTC and now facing the critical 50-day MA line as next resistance.

Key Support Levels: $2300, $2250, $2130.

Key Resistance Levels: $2350, $2440, $2540, $2640.

Ethereum rebounded from support at $1700 (mid-March support) at the beginning of last week and surged into resistance at $2300 (bearish .5 Fib) on the first day of July. However, the second-largest crypto quickly got rejected and found support on top of the $2K mark on Friday.

Over the weekend, ETH managed to break back above the 20-day MA (yesterday) and, continued today higher, as it climbed above the June descending trend line. As of writing these lines, ETH set a new 16-day high price at approximately $2350. The last time ETH reached that price area was on June-18, 2021.

Looking ahead, if the bulls push higher, the first major resistance beyond today’s high ($2350) lies at $2440 (bearish .618 Fib & 50-day MA). This is followed by $2540 (100-day MA), $2640 (bearish .786 Fib), and $2800.

On the other side, the first support now lies at $2300, which is the . This is followed by $2250, $2130 (20-day MA), and $2000 (Feb 2020 highs and this week’s lows from Friday).

The RSI is in the process of climbing above the midline as the buyers attempt to take control of the market momentum. If it can succeed in breaking 50, it would be the first time bulls are in control within the ETH/USD market since mid-May.

Key Support Levels: 0.065 BTC, 0.0632 BTC, 0.061 BTC.

Key Resistance Levels: 0.066 BTC, 0.069 BTC, 0.072 BTC.

Etheruem is also performing well against BTC after recoding a new 21-day high ealier today at around 0.066 BTC. The coin pushed higher from 0.06 BTC on Wednesday, to break above the 20-day MA and reach 0.065 BTC. It failed to break 0.065 BTC until today, as mentioned.

As can be seen below, ETH/BTC found support at a short-term rising trendline on Friday, and now facing resistance around 0.066 BTC provided by the 50-day MA and the bearish .5 Fib.

Moving forward, the first resistance lies at 0.066 BTC (50-day MA). This is followed by 0.069 BTC (bearish .618 Fib), and 0.072 BTC (long-term bearish .618 FiB).

On the other side, the first support lies at 0.065 BTC. This is followed by 0.0632 BTC, 0.061 BTC (20-day MA), and 0.06 BTC.

The RSI pushed above the midline this weekend, indicating that the buyers have taken control of the market momentum.

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Top 5 cryptocurrencies to watch this week: BTC, ETH, UNI, ICP, AAVE

Cointelegraph 04 July, 2021 - 09:37am

Bitcoin may pick up momentum in the next few days and select altcoins ETH, UNI, ICP, and AAVE could also rally along.

This suggests that the sentiment remains negative. However, the recent Chinese crackdown on crypto miners or the regulatory actions have failed to trigger the next leg of the downtrend in Bitcoin. This indicates that smart money is not panicking but bottom fishing on dips.

Analyst Willy Woo recently said in an interview on the What Bitcoin Did podcast that long-term holders who had sold their Bitcoin earlier this year are slowly accumulating at lower levels. Woo added that on-chain data suggests that Bitcoin is in recovery.

According to sources of news outlet The Street, Billionaire Steven Cohen’s hedge fund Point72 Asset Management is hunting for a “head of crypto” to enter the crypto sector. This suggests that institutional investors are viewing the current dip as an entry opportunity.

With crypto markets in a state of recovery, let’s study the charts of the top five cryptocurrencies that have a good shot at leading the relief rally.

Bitcoin has been consolidating between the $31,000 to $42,451.67 range for the past few days. After the bears failed to sustain the price below the support of the range on June 22 and 26, the bulls are currently attempting a recovery.

The bulls have pushed the price above the 20-day exponential moving average ($34,993) and will now attempt to drive the price above the 50-day simple moving average ($36,597). The positive divergence on the relative strength index indicates the bullish momentum may be picking up.

If buyers thrust the price above the 50-day SMA, the BTC/USDT pair could rally to the overhead resistance zone at $41,330 to $42,451.67. The bears are likely to defend this zone aggressively. If the price turns down from this resistance, the pair may extend its range-bound action for a few more days.

Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns down from the 50-day SMA and breaks below $32,700, the bears will again try to sink the pair below $31,000. If they succeed, the next stop could be the critical support at $28,000.

The 4-hour chart shows the formation of an ascending triangle pattern that will complete on a breakout and close above $36,670. If the bulls manage to pull it off, the pair could rally to $41,000 and then to the pattern target at $44,535.

On the contrary, if the price turns down from the current level or $36,670, the bears will try to sink the pair below the trendline of the triangle. If that happens, the bullish setup will be nullified and that could result in a drop to $32,700 and then $31,000.

Ether (ETH) broke above the 20-day EMA ($2.193) on June 30 but the bulls could not sustain the higher levels. The bears pulled the price back below the 20-day EMA on July 1 and tried to trap the aggressive bulls.

However, the strong rebound off $2,018.50 on July 2 suggests the sentiment has turned positive and traders are accumulating on dips. The bulls pushed the price back above the 20-day EMA on July 3.

The 20-day EMA has flattened out and the RSI is attempting to rise above 52, indicating the momentum is turning positive. The ETH/USDT pair could rally to the downtrend line where the bears may attempt to stall the up-move.

But if the momentum continues and the bulls propel the price above the downtrend line, the pair could rise to $2,990.05. This positive view will invalidate if the pair turns down from the 50-day SMA ($2,437) and breaks the $2,000 support.

The 4-hour chart shows an inverse head and shoulders pattern that has completed on a breakout and close above $2,280. This bullish setup has a target objective of $2,860. The rising moving averages and the RSI near the overbought zone suggest that buyers are in control.

Contrary to this assumption, if the pair plummets back below $2,280, it will suggest that bears have not yet given up and they are trying to trap the aggressive bulls. A break below $2,000 may again shift the advantage back in favor of the bears. The pair could then retest the critical support at $1,728.74.

Uniswap (UNI) rebounded off $13 on June 22 and has risen above the 20-day EMA ($19.50), for the first time since June 4, which is a positive sign. The 20-day EMA has flattened out and the RSI has risen to the midpoint, indicating that sellers are losing their grip.

The UNI/USDT pair could now rise to the 50-day SMA ($22.99) where the bears are again likely to mount a stiff resistance. However, if the bulls can arrest the next decline at the 20-day EMA, it will suggest a change in sentiment from sell on rallies to buy on dips.

That will enhance the prospects of a break above the 50-day SMA. If that happens, the pair may start its journey to the overhead resistance at $30. On the contrary, if the price turns down and breaks below $16.93, the bears may again pull the pair down to $13.

The moving averages have completed a bullish crossover and the RSI is near the overbought territory, implying that the bulls have the upper hand in the short term. If the buyers drive the price above the overhead resistance at $21, the pair could pick up momentum and rally to $25 and then to $27.

On the other hand, if the price breaks below the 20-EMA, the next major support to watch on the downside is $17. A break below it will suggest that traders continue to short at higher levels. The pair may then drop to $15.

After a massive fall from $497.19 to $28.31, Internet Computer (ICP) is attempting to form a bottom. The 20-day EMA ($53) is flattening out and the RSI is attempting to recover from deeply oversold levels, indicating that selling pressure is reducing.

If bulls push the price above $60, the ICP/USDT pair will complete a 1-2-3 bottom formation. The pair could then rally to $72.61. Subsequently, if bulls arrest the next decline above the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that a new uptrend has started.

Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns down from the current level and plummets below $41.44, the bears will attempt to sink the pair to the all-time low at $28.31. A break below this support could extend the downtrend.

The moving averages have completed a bullish crossover and the RSI is in the positive territory on the 4-hour chart, suggesting the bulls are back in the game. However, the bears are unlikely to give up easily and are defending $52.

If the price turns down from the current level but rebounds off the moving averages, it will suggest accumulation at lower levels. The bulls will then again try to thrust the price above $52 and then $60.

If they succeed, the pair may begin a new uptrend. Contrary to this assumption, if the price plummets below $40, the pair may retest the all-time low.

Related: Altcoin Roundup: Smart investors don’t just buy dips, they dollar-cost average

Aave broke above the downtrend line on June 29, indicating that the negative momentum was weakening. The bears tried to stall the recovery at the 20-day EMA ($252) but could not sink the price back below the downtrend line. This suggests buying at lower levels.

The bulls have propelled the price above the 20-day EMA on July 3, indicating a possible change in trend. The bears may attempt to flip the previous support at $280 into resistance but if the bulls do not allow the price to dip below $215.62, the possibility of a break above the overhead resistance is high.

That will open the gates for a rally to the 50-day SMA ($321) and then $400. The flattening 20-day EMA and the RSI near the midpoint signals that bulls are attempting to make a comeback. This positive view will invalidate if the AAVE/USDT pair turns down from the current level and plummets below $215.62. That could result in a retest of the June 22 low at $170.10.

The 4-hour chart shows a rounding bottom formation that will complete on a breakout and close above the overhead resistance at $280. This reversal setup has a target objective at $389.90 but it may not be an easy ride higher as the bears will try to stall the rally at $340.

Both moving averages have turned up and the RSI is in the positive territory, indicating advantage to the bulls. If the price turns down from the current level but rebounds off the moving averages, it will suggest that the sentiment has turned positive and buyers are accumulating on dips. This assumption will invalidate on a breakdown and close below $215.62.

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Bitcoin Cash, BAT, DASH Price Analysis: 03 July

AMBCrypto News 03 July, 2021 - 06:05am

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