Buccaneers vs. Eagles picks: Point spread, total, player props, trends for 'Thursday Night Football' in Week 6

Sports

CBS Sports 13 October, 2021 - 04:43pm

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Philadelphia Eagles will kick off Week 6 in the NFL when these two NFC squads square off for "Thursday Night Football." The Bucs enter this matchup after a win over the Miami Dolphins that featured arguably the most impressive statistical performance of Tom Brady's career. The 44-year old went bonkers, throwing for 411 yards and five touchdowns in the win. Meanwhile, the Eagles rallied against the Panthers as Jalen Hurts rushed for two touchdowns in the second half to squeak out the 21-18 victory on the road. 

While these teams are coming into Week 6 with different records on the season, they own an identical ATS record of 2-3 entering Thursday. That's going to be our point of focus today. In this space, we're going to dive into the different betting angles that this game has to offer. Along with the spread and total, we'll also take a look at a number of player props and hand in our picks for how we see this primetime matchup unfolding. 

This number originally opened at Buccaneers -6.5, but ticked up a half-point on Sunday evening to Buccaneers -7 and had held for the bulk of the week. On Tuesday, however, you were able to lay the points with Tampa Bay at +100. 

The pickBuccaneers -7. There's bound to be a lot of folks on the Philly bandwagon after its defense came alive against the Panthers and forced three interceptions against Sam Darnold. While that performance was encouraging, facing Brady and this Bucs offense is an entirely different animal. This should be a wildly entertaining game but if this turns into a high-scoring affair as the total suggests, I see Brady and Co. coming out on top in that scenario. 

Key trend: Eagles are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a win. 

This total opened at 53 but did drop a full point to 52 on Monday. It's possible that Tom Brady's reported thumb injury may have the power to move that number down a notch, even though it's expected that he'll play. On the even of this matchup, however, the total has bumped up to half-point to 52.5.  

The pick: Over 52.5. Both of these offenses can put up points in a hurry. Currently, they are each inside the top 10 in the NFL in yards per play with the Bucs at 6.3 yards and Eagles 6.1 yards, respectfully. Tampa Bay is also averaging 33.4 points per game, which ranks third-most in the league. While the Eagles played well last week defensively, they did allow 40-plus points in each of their previous two games. If they revert back to that on Thursday, it won't take much for this game to go over.  

Key trend: Over is 4-0 for the Bucs following a straight-up win. 

Brady's passing yards prop has skyrocketed leading into this matchup and now sits at 302.5. While this is a lofty number, he's gone over this total in three of his five games played this season. My favorite Brady prop of the bunch here is the Over on his 1.5 rushing yards. He's gone over this total in four of his five games played this season and would essentially just need a short QB sneak to hit as long as he's not costing you by taking a knee in victory formation. 

The Buccaneers are great against the run, but the Eagles will still use Hurt's rushing ability in some capacity in this game, which is why I'm leaning Over on his 7.5 rushing attempts. He flirts around this number in essentially every game he's played this season and has gone over this total in his last four games.  

Zach Ertz total receiving yards: Over 45.5 (-110). This changes if Dallas Goedert (COVID-19 list) is cleared to play, but Ertz could be the lone tight end in the Eagles' passing attack on Thursday. Even as the No. 2 on the depth chart, he's eclipsed this number in two of his last three games. 

Gio Bernard total receiving yards: Over 12.5 (-110). Bernard's snaps have ticked up over the last couple of weeks and is building a solid rapport with Brady. He's also gone over this number in all but one of his four games played this season. 

Mike Evans total receiving yards: Over 68.5 (-115). Evans has seen 30 targets over the last three weeks and has an ADOT of 14.1 this season. With that kind of volume at that passing depth, he'll be looking at another big day on Thursday. 

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Buccaneers-Eagles Week 6 Preview, Odds, Pick

ClutchPoints 13 October, 2021 - 06:01pm

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Philadelphia Eagles will kick off Week 6 on Thursday Night Football. It’s time to continue our NFL odds series and make a Buccaneers-Eagles prediction and pick.

It seems like the Buccaneers have recovered from their Week 4 loss to the Los Angeles Rams without any problems. Since that defeat, Tampa Bay has notched two straight victories, with one win being a dominant showing against the Miami Dolphins. With those two consecutive wins, the Bucs have taken a commanding lead in the NFC South.

The Eagles actually helped them get that lead, as Philadelphia pulled off an upset of the Carolina Panthers in Week 5. Philly played terrible football for most of the game, but credit to head coach Nick Sirianni’s squad for playing hard for all four quarters and securing the win.

Here’s how the bookmakers have set the Buccaneers-Eagles odds for Thursday’s game.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -7 1/2 (+115)

While Tampa Bay’s defense is the unit that delivered an elite Super Bowl showing, this offense will be the difference-maker in this one. The Buccaneers have been the best passing offense in terms of yardage per game and the second-best passing offense in terms of total touchdowns thrown. The Eagles have faced two offenses that are comparable to Tampa Bay’s in the Dallas Cowboys and Kansas City Chiefs. Over those two contests, Philadelphia allowed 516 yards passing and eight touchdowns. Those are abysmal numbers, and they won’t improve against Brady and one of the best wide receiver groups in the league. Expect the Bucs to move the ball through the air at will.

Most of Tampa Bay’s defensive firepower is in the front seven, which happens to be perfect for this matchup against the Eagles. Philadelphia already struggles to run the football in any capacity, proven by the fact that they’ve never come particularly close to having an 100-yard rusher in any game this season. The Bucs are the best run defense in the league by far, so Philly should be forced to pass the ball all throughout this one. When the Eagles are forced to pass, Tampa Bay should be able to rush the passer capably. Two starting offensive linemen for Philly will miss this game, and there’s a chance star right tackle Lane Johnson also doesn’t suit up. Expect the Bucs to have a better day on defense than most expect.

Despite their 4-1 record, the Buccaneers have looked mortal throughout the start of this season. The Cowboys nearly stole the season opener from them, and the New England Patriots were incredibly close to pulling off an upset win at home. The Eagles are a better team than the Patriots are and have the tools to cover here, even without Dallas Goedert. The Buccaneers have been horrendous defending the pass, ranking last in the NFL in terms of yards per game. Philly quarterback Jalen Hurts has surpassed 300 yards passing in two of his last three contests, and he should do that again here. The Eagles should manage to keep this close based solely on the strength of their offense.

Health is beginning to become a factor for most teams in the league, and Tampa Bay is no different. The Buccaneers have been hammered by injuries, and this short week isn’t doing them any favors. Head coach Bruce Arians’ team already has two starting corners on injured reserve, and now star linebacker Lavonte David is nursing an ankle injury. Starting center Ryan Jensen, tight end Rob Gronkowski, safety Antoine Winfield, and wide receiver Chris Godwin are other players who are likely to enter this game as questionable at the very best. Philadelphia will be playing a weakened version of the Buccaneers at home in this one.

This game is going to be a lot closer than anyone expects. Tampa Bay is just too injured to warrant a confident pick, and the Eagles are a little too inconsistent. Instead of taking either, the over is the best pick on the board. Taking the Eagles to cover is also a decent play.

FINAL BUCCANEERS-EAGLES PICK: Over 52 1/2 points (-110)

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