Chiefs-Browns snap counts: All 4 tight ends played — but never together

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Arrowhead Pride 14 September, 2021 - 01:05pm 7 views

What channel is the Chiefs game on tonight?

The Chiefs game today will be broadcast on CBS at 3:25 p.m. C.T. Arrowhead AddictChiefs Game Today: Browns vs Chiefs injury report, schedule, live Stream, TV channel and betting preview for Week 1 NFL game

How the Chiefs Came Back to Beat the Browns

Chiefs Digest 14 September, 2021 - 03:07pm

The Chiefs' next game will be in primetime on the road against the Baltimore Ravens for Sunday Night Football. The Ravens will be playing their second primetime game against the AFC West already this season, following a wild overtime loss to the Las Vegas Raiders on Monday Night Football.

Here are the advanced numbers from the Chiefs' win over the Browns and the season so far from Ben Baldwin's rbsdm.com.

Both offenses were fantastic in this game as the Browns finished the game with a 0.22 EPA per play and the Chiefs finished with a 0.32 EPA per play. Both were, as usual, carried in this metric by their passing attacks, though this was far more of the case for the Chiefs than for the Browns. The Browns finished with a 0.35 EPA per pass and 0.07 EPA per run, both of which are impressive, while the Chiefs finished with an astounding 0.51 EPA per pass and a lowly -0.16 EPA per run.

The gigantic difference in this game came from the late-down situations. While the Browns converted multiple critical fourth-down plays that they correctly went for, they still fell short on their late-down numbers thanks to a fumbled snap on a punt, a third-down penalty and sack near the end of the first half, and an incomplete pass with nearly five minutes left in the game on 3rd-and-7. Meanwhile, the Chiefs were beyond dominant in late downs, with over half an expected point added on each play on third or fourth down, whether it was a run or a pass.

For the Chiefs, Hill and Kelce were dominant. Hill had a mind-boggling 12.9 EPA over 15 targets for 11 catches and one run, and Kelce had a 9.2 EPA over seven targets and six catches on eight plays to give him 1.15 EPA per play. The only other Chiefs weapon with at least three plays to have a positive EPA was Mecole Hardman, who had 1.7 EPA over four plays, predominantly from two catches, though one of which he ran short of the first down marker in addition to a free play in which he was targeted.

This was an outstanding quarterback duel. Both quarterbacks really put on a show and greatly improved their team's chances of winning with their performances. Mahomes's EPA numbers and his CPOE are off the charts, with his EPA per play ranking in the 94th percentile, the total EPA ranking in the 97th percentile and the CPOE ranking in the 95th percentile since 2010.

Mayfield was great as well, with an 81st percentile EPA per play, 79th percentile aDoT and a 94th percentile CPOE, showing that he and Mahomes alike were completing passes to a much higher rate than they were expected to, thanks to great ball placement and skill. Mayfield continues to thrive, and you shouldn't be surprised if the Chiefs see him again in January.

Three of the four biggest plays of the game really came to benefit the Chiefs in a huge way, with the top play being Mahomes' 75-yard touchdown pass to Hill on the first play of the drive, adding 6.0 expected points and increasing their win probability from 18% to 36%. The second-biggest play was Nick Chubb's third-quarter fumble which gave the Chiefs some life on defense, giving the Browns -5.4 EPA and increasing the Chiefs' win probability from 32% to 49%. The previously mentioned punt fumble deep in Browns' territory was the third-biggest play, giving the Browns -3.3 EPA and increasing the Chiefs' win probability from 50% to 64%. It happens quite often, but when that many of the biggest plays go in the Chiefs' favor, you're almost certain to lose the game. 

While some will contend that it is best to not go for it early, there is really no good reason for this argument. When you go for it early, you are able to gather an increased amount of information earlier in the game, giving you more ideas of how to address the rest of the game and giving you more time to put those ideas into good use. The Browns were clearly bought into this idea heading into this game and, with a little bit less unluckiness, would have come out with the victory.

To start this season, the Chiefs are doing well, with a 65.7% early-down passing rate, but that only ranks sixth in the first week of the season, which is quite amazing. I also find it notable how six of the top eight won their games this week, with one of the two losers losing to another one of the top four while only staying in the game because of their quarterback's production. Pass to gain and strengthen the lead, run it out late when the clock is your friend. That is how you win football games.

Matchups to Watch Revisited: Week 1 Vs. Seahawks

WKYC Channel 3 14 September, 2021 - 10:00am

Grover Stewart and DeForest Buckner did not have a very good game on Sunday. Chris Carson was able to run the ball without major complications and Russell Wilson did not suffer consistent pressure from the inside of the pocket. On Lockett’s long touchdown to end the first half, you can see DeForest Buckner getting absolutely stonewalled one-on-one by the Seahawks’ right guard. With both of these players being among the highest paid in the NFL, the standard is much higher.

Man, was the offensive line a mess. Kelly has to be better. I don’t know for sure if the botched snap on the 4th and 1 QB sneak is on him, but leaving that out of the table, it was still a horrible game for Kelly.

Just one catch on three targets for Campbell. Not only Campbell, but the passing offense as a whole was uninspiring. As he shakes off the rust from his injury, he will most likely get better, not as it can get any worse...

In the end, it was not Carlos Dunlap that gave the Colts headaches, but Rasheem Green and Darrell Taylor. Smith was terrible all game long, and he was exposed on perhaps the most important play of the game. Facing 4th and 2 in the redzone to start the 4th quarter, with the Colts down by 11, Smith got abused by Taylor one-on-one, who then proceeded to sack Wentz and end the Colts' hopes for a comeback. Smith did not show anything at all to prove that he deserved that big extension last Sunday.

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