Dow narrowly misses first close at 35,000 but all 3 stock indexes log back-to-back record finishes ahead of bank earnings

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MarketWatch 12 July, 2021 - 06:39am 12 views

The record finish comes as investors await semiannual testimony from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell beginning Wednesday and a batch of economic reports throughout the week, the unofficial start of corporate quarterly results.

See: A crazy week for U.S. stocks came with a change in the market narrative—should investors believe it?

On Friday, the Dow and S&P 500 finished the session at record highs, booking weekly gains of about 0.2% and 0.4%, respectively. The Nasdaq Composite finished the week at an all-time high with a 0.4% weekly gain. 

“People are thinking earnings are going to be strong and that may propel the market higher,” said John Carey, director of Equity Income at Amundi U.S., adding that, for now, earnings have overshadowed uncertainty in Washington over planned infrastructure spending and potentially higher corporate taxes.

“Most people seem to be focused on the strength of the economy and the possibility of better earnings to support stock prices, which are definitely at high levels,” Carey told MarketWatch.

Equity markets experienced a bout of turbulence last week before ending with a flourish, prompted partly by a drop in Treasury yields. Lower-bound rates for government debt had raised questions about the outlook for the U.S. economy in the recovery from the pandemic. The spread of the delta variant of COVID-19 has emerged as a concern, but so has the lofty valuations assigned to some segments of the market.

Questions about the Fed’s monetary policy in the face of growing evidence of percolating inflation also have been blamed for some of the rocky trading.

Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams told reporters Monday that conditions for scaling back its $120 billion a month bond-buying stimulus program have yet to be met.

Although inflation and peak growth concerns continue to percolate and worry U.S. households, some strategists said those concerns may be “over-hyped” for markets.

“Both the previous inflation concerns and the current peak growth concerns are likely over-extrapolated reflections of near-term trends that will not persist,” Glenmede’s team led by Jason Pride and Michael Reynolds, wrote in a Monday note.

Also read: Higher U.S. inflation isn’t going away just yet. Here’s why

Investors also have been keeping an eye on delta-driven COVID infections. The U.S. leads the world with a total of 33.85 million COVID cases and in deaths with 607,156. Dr. Anthony Fauci said on Monday that boosters weren’t needed for now, but during a Sunday CNN inview said it was “horrifying” to see conservatives cheer for low vaccination rates, blaming “ideological rigidity” for hobbling the fight against the pandemic.

“We have long warned that vaccinations would be unlikely to trigger a smooth transition to normalcy,” Ben May, Oxford Economics’ director of global macro research wrote Monday.

No key data were on deck Monday ahead of a busy week in economic reports, starting with a reading of consumer prices on Tuesday.

Separately, investors also were focused on discussions among finance ministers from the G-20, who are trying to assess the potential implications of a proposal for a global minimum tax.

“We need sustainable sources of revenue that do not rely on further taxing workers’ wages and exacerbating the economic disparities that we are all committed to reducing,” U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said in a speech to European Union countries about revamping the corporate tax code internationally.

“We need to put an end to corporations shifting capital income to low tax jurisdictions, and to accounting gimmicks that allow them to avoid paying their fair share,” she said.

DNB Asset Management bought more Apple and NIO shares, started a stake in Li Auto, and halved an investment in Intel.

Mark DeCambre is MarketWatch's markets editor. He is based in New York. Follow him on Twitter @mdecambre.

Read full article at MarketWatch

Stock market news live updates: Stocks end at records as investors look ahead to earnings

Yahoo Finance 12 July, 2021 - 03:06pm

Each of the S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq set record closing highs. The 10-year Treasury yield steadied around 1.35%, recovering after dipping to a five-month low of below 1.3% last week.

Major companies will begin releasing their second-quarter results beginning on Tuesday with the big banks JPMorgan Chase (JPM) and Goldman Sachs (GS). With results fueled by strengthening consumer demand as pandemic-related restrictions eased early this year, S&P 500 companies are expected to see aggregate earnings grow by 64% over last year, according to FactSet. This would accelerate from the first quarter's growth rate of about 50% and mark the fastest pace for the index since 2009. 

According to Goldman Sachs strategist David Kostin, investors should be focused on three main questions for companies heading into earnings season: How firms will maintain profit margins given rising input costs and supply chain shortages, how companies plan to prioritize cash spending, and how policy uncertainties especially around taxes affect their outlooks. 

"Global shipping woes, raw material inflation as well as acute shortages in both labor and semiconductors have combined to increase costs for companies across the economy, " Kostin wrote in a note on Monday. "Investors have started to reward companies with attractive margin profiles." 

In addition to earning season, this week will also see Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell testify before Congress with his semi-annual Monetary Policy Report on Wednesday and Thursday. Pundits expected the central bank leader to strike a more dovish tone on the economic recovery and monetary policy compared to his other recent public remarks, given the mixed June jobs report out earlier this month and last week's Fed minutes showing a central bank divided on the topic of tapering. Additional economic reports on consumer price inflation and retail sales out this week are also expected to underscore an economic recovery capped by supply and demand imbalances and elevated inflation during the reopening. 

"I think the recovery is on track, it's really just the rate of change that has slowed," Kathy Jones, Charles Schwab chief fixed income strategist, told Yahoo Finance. "And we couldn't continue to grow at 9% to 10% GDP growth every quarter, so obviously it's going to slow down."

"I think one of the things that got into markets that got [Treasury] yields tumbling was maybe the fact that the Fed was going to hike rates sooner than anticipated," she added. "That sends a signal to the long end of the bond market that maybe the Fed isn't going to tolerate higher inflation for longer and that they're going to step on the brakes sooner rather than later ... we don't think that's going to be the case though. We think the economy's doing well, yields will probably bounce back." 

Here were the main moves in markets as of 4:05 p.m. ET:

S&P 500 (^GSPC): +15.07 (+0.34%) to 4,384.62

Dow (^DJI): +126.02 (+0.36%) to 34,996.18

Nasdaq (^IXIC): +31.32 (+0.21%) to 14,733.24

Crude (CL=F): -$0.41 (-0.55%) to $74.15 a barrel

Gold (GC=F): -$4.00 (-0.22%) to $1,806.60 per ounce

10-year Treasury (^TNX): +0.7 bps to yield 1.3630%

Shares of Broadcom (AVGO) gained more than 1.5% intraday on Monday after the Wall Street Journal reported that the software company was in discussions to purchase SAS Institute. 

The deal could be valued at between $15 billion and $20 billion, according to the report.

The three major indexes pushed higher mid-morning in New York on Monday, with both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq eking out all-time highs. 

The real estate, financials and healthcare sectors led modest gains in the S&P 500, while energy, consumer staples and utilities sectors were still in the red. Goldman Sachs, Disney and JPMorgan Chase outperformed in the 30-stock Dow, with the rise in the bank stocks coming a day ahead of their earnings results.  

Shares of Virgin Galactic (SPCE) took a sharp turn lower Monday morning to trade more than 12% lower after rising in early trading, after the company completed a successful test flight with founder Sir Richard Branson on board for the first time.  

Capitalizing on hype around the stock heading into the test flight, the company said in a filing Monday it planned to sell up to $500 million in stock to investors. Any funds raised would be used "for general corporate purposes, including working capital, general and administrative matters and capital expenditures for its manufacturing capabilities, development of its spaceship fleet and other infrastructure improvements," Virgin Galactic said in the filing. 

The test flight with Branson was seen as a key milestone for the company before re-launching ticket sales for commercial space flights with paying passengers, which have been on hold since 2014. As of earlier this year, the company had around 600 reservations already for "future astronauts," with tickets having sold for up to $250,000 each. Shares of Virgin Galactic had more than doubled for the year-to-date through Friday's close. 

Here's where markets were trading shortly after the opening bell:

S&P 500 (^GSPC): -0.9 points (-0.02%) to 4,368.65

Dow (^DJI): -66.74 (-0.19%) to 34,803.42

Nasdaq (^IXIC): +30.9 (+0.21%) to 14,590.83

Crude (CL=F): -$0.97 (-1.3%) to $73.59 a barrel

Gold (GC=F): -$7.40 (-0.41%) to $1,803.20 per ounce

10-year Treasury (^TNX): -0.8 bps to yield 1.348%

Here's where markets were trading Monday morning: 

S&P 500 futures (ES=F): 4,349.5, -10.5 points (-0.24%)

Dow futures (YM=F): 34,604.00, -147.00 points (-0.42%)

Nasdaq futures (NQ=F): 14,841.75, +31.25 points (+0.21%)

Crude (CL=F): -$1.23 (-1.65%) to $73.33 a barrel

Gold (GC=F): -$10.00 (-0.55%) to $1,800.60 per ounce

10-year Treasury (^TNX): -1.2 bps to yield 1.344%

Emily McCormick is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow her on Twitter: @emily_mcck

DUBAI (Reuters) -Saudi Aramco has dropped Morgan Stanley as an adviser for the sale of its gas pipelines and picked JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs for the role, three sources familiar with matter said. JPMorgan had also advised Aramco on the sale of the oil pipeline business, which was sold to a consortium led by Washington-DC based EIG Global Energy Partners for $12.4 billion. Aramco has also invited banks to advise on the financing of the deal, sources told Reuters, the second major midstream deal after the sale of the oil pipelines.

Wells Fargo is closing lines of credit for consumers, and the move could affect their credit scores and history. But what's unclear is what the cost of that could be.

Is it time to stay clear of these top tech stocks? Perhaps, warns Jefferies.

Warren Buffett stocks are famous for tight focus. And this year, the famed investor's concentrated play on top S&P 500 stocks is paying off.

Many portfolio managers are increasingly bullish, even with the stock market trading around all-time peaks, according to Citigroup Inc.

U.S. stocks book another round of records on Monday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average ending just shy of a milestone 35,000, but still joining the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite with back-to-back closing records.

Investors are gearing up for a busy week, with the start of second-quarter earnings season and an onslaught of new economic data on deck.

Biden could be days away from making the biggest gamble on America in decades. It could be great news for these 3 companies

Shares of SGOCO Group (NASDAQ: SGOC) were up as much as 196% Monday morning as retail investors piled into this penny stock. On Friday of last week, SGOCO Group stock went up 500% on no news or analyst reports. Historically, SGOCO Group's 10-day trading volume was much less than 1 million shares.

Virgin Galactic stock was up 217% in the two months before Sunday's flight to the edge of space.

In this article we will take a look at the 15 most valuable weed companies in the world. You can skip our detailed analysis of the weed industry, and go directly to the 5 Most Valuable Weed Companies in the World. Weed is a psychoactive drug developed from the Cannabis plant. Majorly, there are two […]

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There's arguably been no hotter stock on the planet in 2021 than movie theater chain AMC Entertainment (NYSE: AMC). At the heart of this rally are AMC's passionate army of retail investors, collectively known as "apes" -- an homage to Rise of the Planet of the Apes, where leader Caesar infers that apes are stronger together. This might sound like a feel-good story whereby retail is finally exacting its revenge on Wall Street, but the reality is that AMC has become a battleground pump-and-dump scheme driven higher almost entirely by the misinformation and lies spread by its retail investors.

In last week's article on three stocks to avoid, I predicted that DiDi Global (NYSE: DIDI), Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NYSE: NCLH), and Carnival (NYSE: CCL) (NYSE: CUK) would have a rough few days. DiDi Global had a rough week. Finally, Carnival plunged 7%, doubling down on the cruise industry last week as stocks to avoid paid off.

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Opening Bell: Futures, Europe Stocks Slide Ahead Of Earnings Season; Oil Drops | Investing.com

Investing.com 12 July, 2021 - 09:10am

US futures contracts on the Dow, S&P and Russell 2000, as well as European stocks, headed lower in trading on Monday ahead of the start of the US earnings season. Upcoming reports will be closely watched as a gauge to determine whether the economic recovery can withstand rising inflation and the persistent spread of the Delta strain of the coronavirus. Futures on the NASDAQ, however, moved slightly higher after the underlying index posted new records last week

We expect stocks to whipsaw as second-quarter earnings season kicks-off with banks reporting.

On Tuesday ahead of the US open, Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) and JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM) will report followed by Bank of America (NYSE:BAC), BlackRock (NYSE:BLK) and Citigroup (NYSE:C) which report ahead of the open on Wednesday. We expect markets will react to every piece of news regarding inflation, the coronavirus and the path to US monetary tightening. 

Once again, the market has flipped from Friday’s reflation-led rally back to growth sectors, led by technology. NASDAQ 100 contracts were the only major index in the green, up 0.2%, while Russell 2000 futures underperformed, 0.4% deep in the red.

After opening with swings between gains and losses, the STOXX 600 index was pulled lower by banks and commodity producers—reflation sectors— overshadowing a rally in real estate and utilities.

After taking profits on Friday, bond traders ended the 8-day straight decline for yields. We have argued that investors have been increasing Treasury holdings to protect their capital on concerns that the virus, more so than inflation, is hurting the recovery as the appetite for the 10-year Treasury note far surpassed the demand for gold or copper, two other inflation hedges.

Treasuries are likely to have an impact on markets this week as new economic data prints, including key inflation data on Tuesday, the June consumer price index, which will offer insight into inflationary pressures, and Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell’s semi-annual testimony to Congress.

Yields are resuming a selloff, after a bearish pennant helped them to top out, pushing them into a steeper falling channel.

The dollar fluctuated, and at the time of writing, gave up early gains and edged lower. The greenback is now struggling to prevent a decline for a third day in a row, its longest since May 18.

Bitcoin traded higher for the second day, a meaningless move as long as the digital coin remains trapped in the current range, where it has been since May 20.

Oil extended a selloff after upending a six-week straight gain, as OPEC+ remains mired in a production dispute, demonstrating a lack of control over the market.

WTI is potentially setting up a H&S top.

After riding swift tailwinds through Q1, the biggest U.S. banks could face tougher times as Q2 earnings loom. That doesn’t mean Q2 year-over-year earnings growth for the...

Worries that Delta variant is fuelling a new global surge in infections sap sentimentDollar halts decline, edges up, while stocks back under pressureBonds to stay in focus as...

The European Central Bank has chosen to follow the Federal Reserve’s lead and make its inflation targeting more flexible, giving it leeway to keep rates low for longer. In what is...

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Virgin Galactic Soars, Rocket Cos. Drops, and Stocks Are Mostly Lower

Barron's 12 July, 2021 - 07:30am

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Stocks were set for a mostly lower open as investors await second quarter earnings reports and stocks are coming off new all-time highs. 

Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 127 points, or 0.4%, while S&P 500 futures fell 0.2% and Nasdaq Composite futures advanced 0.2%. 

Companies are due to begin reporting second-quarter earnings results. Analysts expect earnings growth of 64% year-over-year for the quarter, according to FactSet. That’s an acceleration from the just over 50% growth seen in the first quarter, as reopenings have been met with trillions of dollars of fiscal stimulus. 

“Futures are slightly lower following a very quiet weekend of news as markets wait for the start of earnings this week,” writes Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research. 

Stocks are already reflecting some of the strength ahead. The S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq all closed at record highs Friday. Those indexes are up about 16%, 14% and 14% year-to-date, respectively. 

Here are five stocks making moves in Monday’s premarket action:

Virgin Galactic (ticker: SPCE) stock gained 5% after the company successfully completed the first space tourism flight over the weekend. 

Invesco (IVZ) stock gained 1% after getting upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Citigroup. 

Cheesecake Factory (CAKE) stock gained 1.9% after getting upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Raymond James. 

Brinker International (EAT) stock gained 2% after getting upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Raymond James. 

Rocket Cos. (RKT) stock dropped 1.5% after getting downgraded to Hold from Buy at Jefferies. 

Write to Jacob Sonenshine at jacob.sonenshine@barrons.com

Stocks were set for a mostly lower open as investors await second quarter earnings reports and stocks are coming off new all-time highs.

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Dow, S&P, Nasdaq hit records ahead of bank earnings Tuesday

Fox Business 12 July, 2021 - 06:36am

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Cresset Capital founder Jack Ablin and Payne Capital Management's Courtney Dominguez join 'Making Money with Charles Payne'

U.S. stocks rose across the board as investors position themselves ahead of key inflation data and earnings from the likes of JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs, both due Tuesday. 

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose over 130 points or 0.37%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite gained 0.35% and 0.21%, respectively. All three of the major averages closed at fresh record highs. 

Disney shares led the Dow after confirming ‘Black Widow’ pulled in $215 million globally at the Weekend Box Office. The benchmark is inching closer to the key 35,000 level. 

Virgin Galactic shares, reversed morning gains, after floating a potential $500 million stock sale after billionaire Richard Branson blasted successfully into orbit. The stock fell over 17% nearly matching its worst drop on record when it fell 18.9% in March of last year.

Next up, Amazon founder Jeff Bezos is set to take off next Tuesday with Blue Origin releasing early details of the flight. 

Johnson & Johnson shares slipped-on reports the Food & Drug Administration will issue a warning over its COVID-19 vaccine and possible links to Guillain-Barre Syndrome reported two weeks after the shot. 

Also, Tesla shares rose as CEO Elon Musk testified in person over the $2.6 billion acquisition of Solar City after some shareholders disputed the deal. 

Earnings from the big banks, including Wells Fargo, will kick off tomorrow, with one-quarter of the financial firms reporting this week. Charles Schwab will report on Thursday. 

Other key earnings will come from Delta Airlines on Wednesday and American Outdoor Brands Thursday. 

In commodities, oil fell 46 cents per barrel or 0.62% to $74.10. While gold lost $4.50 per troy ounce or 0.25% to $1805.50.

Overseas, European markets all closed with gains as the FTSE 100 Index rose 3.54 points or 0.05% to 7125.42, Germany's DAX gained 102.58 points or 0.65% to 15790.51, France's CAC gained 29.83 points or 0.46% to 6559.25. While the EURO STOXX 50 Index ended up 25.29 points or 0.62% to 4093.38.

Asian stocks also advanced with the NIKKEI 225 Index rising 628.60 points or 2.25%, the Shanghai Composite Index up 23.75 points or 0.67%, and the Hang Seng Index is up 170.70 points or 0.62%.

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Stocks Poised to Extend Gains Ahead of Earnings Parade

Yahoo Finance 11 July, 2021 - 06:19pm

On Friday, the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq all finished the day at fresh all-time highs. Bank stocks reclaimed lost ground from Thursday’s sell-off while travel stocks including airlines also made a quick turnaround.

Trading in stock index futures suggests that Monday will extend Friday’s gains. On Sunday evening, the S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq index futures were all trading fractionally higher.

The second-quarter earnings parade will begin in earnest this week on Tuesday. Financial services is among the first sectors to report, with Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan in the pipeline, in addition to consumer company PepsiCo. A Cowen & Co. analyst reiterated her outperform rating on PepsiCo shares in recent days.

The economy has been humming along even better than had been anticipated since the pandemic year. The expectations for S&P 500 companies this earnings season are bullish. Profits are poised to increase 65% vs. year-ago levels, as per Refinitive data, a sign that the pandemic pressure is seemingly in the rearview mirror.

Meme stocks bucked the bullish trend on Friday, though. Barron’s seems to think the meme-stock rally has more fuel left in the tank, based on its latest cover.

AMC Entertainment shaved nearly 4% off its value, while GameStop was down fractionally. Investors also appeared to take some profits in Virgin Galactic, which fell nearly 7% on Friday after Thursday’s blockbuster trading session.

Investors will be looking to gauge how inflation is looking in the economy when the Consumer Price Index comes out on July 13. Wells Fargo economists are expecting an increase of 0.6% for a 5% YoY rate.

This article was originally posted on FX Empire

LinkDoc Technology, which is a China-based company that leverages sophisticated data technologies for oncology patients, was expected to pull off its IPO last week. (See IPO Calendar on TipRanks) It looked like the deal had traction with investors, with the valuation at about $1.5 billion. But unfortunately, LinkDoc suspended the offering. Of course, this was not necessarily about the company. The fact is that there are major regulatory shifts in China. So then, let’s take a deeper look at the c

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The direction of the September E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index on Monday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 14712.00.

VTEX disclosed Monday terms of its initial public offering, in which the U.K.-headquartered software company that helps retailers build an ecommerce business could be valued at up to $3.2 billion. The company said 19.0 million shares are being offered for sale in the IPO, which is expected to price between $15 and $17 a share, with the company looking to raise up to $235.9 million by selling 13.9 million Class A shares and selling shareholders looking to raise $87.1 million by selling 5.1 millio

We'll learn about the pace of the pandemic rebound from these three companies in the trading days ahead.

TOKYO (Reuters) -Olympic host city Tokyo entered a new state of emergency on Monday, less than two weeks before the Games begin amid worries about whether the measures can stem a rise in COVID-19 cases. Spectators from abroad were already banned months ago, and officials are now asking residents to watch the Games on TV to keep the movement of people, which could spread contagion, to a minimum. Opinion polls have consistently shown the Japanese public is concerned about going ahead with the Games during the pandemic.

Ryanair is making a big bet on the travel revival with plans to recruit 2,000 pilots over the next three years. Europe's biggest budget airline is embarking on the massive recruitment drive in a bid to win market share from rivals weakened by the pandemic. It needs pilots to fly the 210 Boeing 737 Max jets it has on order that started arriving last month. Ryanair will start training new recruits this year and aims to have crews ready for the summer 2022 season. The Irish carrier is banking on mi

VENICE (Reuters) -U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Sunday signaled she will push multilateral development banks further away from fossil fuel projects, saying she would ask them to "increase their climate ambition" to support the Paris Agreement on carbon emissions reductions. Yellen told a news conference that development lenders including the World Bank needed to boost efforts to encourage more private-sector climate-friendly investment. "I plan to shortly convene the heads of the MDBs to articulate our expectations that the MDBs align their portfolios with the Paris Agreement and net-zero goals as urgently as possible," Yellen said in remarks to a G20 climate forum.

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Stock market crashes tend to be painful, but they also create chances to invest in great companies at huge discounts. With that in mind, a panel of Motley Fool contributors has identified three stocks that are worth going big on when the next crash hits. Read on to see why these companies top their "buy lists" for the next time the stock market goes on sale.

There's arguably been no hotter stock on the planet in 2021 than movie theater chain AMC Entertainment (NYSE: AMC). At the heart of this rally are AMC's passionate army of retail investors, collectively known as "apes" -- an homage to Rise of the Planet of the Apes, where leader Caesar infers that apes are stronger together. This might sound like a feel-good story whereby retail is finally exacting its revenge on Wall Street, but the reality is that AMC has become a battleground pump-and-dump scheme driven higher almost entirely by the misinformation and lies spread by its retail investors.

In last week's article on three stocks to avoid, I predicted that DiDi Global (NYSE: DIDI), Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NYSE: NCLH), and Carnival (NYSE: CCL) (NYSE: CUK) would have a rough few days. DiDi Global had a rough week. Finally, Carnival plunged 7%, doubling down on the cruise industry last week as stocks to avoid paid off.

WILMINGTON, Del. (Reuters) -Elon Musk insisted in court on Monday that Tesla Inc's board controls the company but said the electric vehicle maker would "die" if he wasn't the chief executive, as he testified in defense of Tesla's 2016 acquisition of SolarCity. The lawsuit by union pension funds and asset managers alleges the celebrity CEO strong-armed Tesla's board of directors into depleting the company’s assets with the $2.6 billion all-stock deal for SolarCity, which was running out of cash. Musk at the time owned a 22% stake in both Tesla and SolarCity, which was founded by his cousins, and some Tesla shareholders alleged the deal was aimed at bailing out Musk's investment in the solar panel company.

Markets have been heading up, with year-to-date gains in the S&P and NASDAQ at 18% and 15% respectively. So far, the upward trend is showing signs of staying power, and JPMorgan global market strategist, Jordan Jackson, sees a strong foundation in the offing for further growth. Earnings, in Jackson’s view, will be the key driver going forward in this second half: “What’s going to drive the market higher? I think going forward it is going to be earnings... Earnings are certainly expected to surpr

Dow jumps 120 points to close just shy of 35,000 on earnings optimism

CNBC 11 July, 2021 - 05:13pm

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed just shy of 35,000 as investors grew more optimistic ahead of second-quarter earnings reporting season set to kick off this week.

The Dow rose 126.02 points, or 0.4% to 34,996.18, a new record close. The S&P 500 added 0.4% to 4,384.63, also a record close. The Nasdaq Composite traded up 0.2% to a new closing high of 14,733.24. The S&P 500's gain for the year so far now totals more than 16%.

Investors appeared cautiously optimistic ahead of the start of second-quarter earnings reports. JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs will be among the first big companies to report Tuesday before the bell. Both stocks were higher on Monday and financials led among S&P 500 sectors,

"Most investors are expecting blockbuster earnings results and these will likely be peak earnings results," said Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at Cresset Wealth Advisors. "The most important element of these reports this week will be the outlook discussion from management and not necessarily the numbers of the last three months." 

Second-quarter earnings are expected to surge more than 64% from levels depleted by the pandemic a year ago, according to estimates collected by FactSet. If companies deliver on those estimates, it will be the largest growth rate since the last quarter of 2009 as the market was coming out of the Great Financial Crisis.

Names linked to the economic comeback from the pandemic were slightly weaker with Carnival Corp. and United Airlines lower. Meanwhile, technology stocks showed pockets of strength with Tesla and Nvidia higher.

Shares of Walt Disney gained after "Black Widow" earned $80 million at the domestic box office from its debut, the most of any film released in the Covid era. The company also said it garnered an additional $60 million from the movie in Disney+ sales.

Earnings season will largely be the driver of the markets in coming weeks and early signs are looking good. So far, 66 S&P 500 companies issued positive earnings guidance into the second-quarter reports, the highest number of companies since FactSet began tracking the number. All 11 sectors of the market are set to post growth with energy, industrials, consumer discretionary, financials and materials seeing the biggest gains as the economy reopened.

"Continued earnings momentum should refuel investors' confidence in the recovery amid slowdown concerns and drive a rotation back into Value," Bank of America's Savita Subramanian said in a note Sunday.

Along with JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs, Pepsico will also report on Tuesday before the bell. Bank of America, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, Delta Air Lines and BlackRock report on Wednesday, and Morgan StanleyTruist and UnitedHealth post results on Thursday.

Investors also anticipate important data to be released this week, including key readings on inflation on Tuesday and Wednesday, and June retail sales on Friday.

Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell is set to testify before Congress on Wednesday and Thursday, and investors will be looking for any signals of fiscal policy updates.

"While earnings of course are going to be important, most of the earnings really don't come out until next week and the week after," Peter Boockvar, CNBC contributor and chief investment officer at Bleakley Advisory Group, said. "So while we'll focus on what the banks have to say...right now, it's all about CPI tomorrow, it's all about what Powell says and if he hints to the taper sooner rather than later."

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Earnings season kicks off, CPI and retail sales: What to know this week

Yahoo Finance 11 July, 2021 - 02:21pm

The prospects of another strong quarter for corporate earnings results have been one of the major factors underpinning stocks' march to new highs as of late. S&P 500 earnings in aggregate are expected to grow by 64% for the second quarter, which would mark the fastest increase since the fourth quarter of 2009, according to FactSet data. 

"Corporate earnings results have far exceeded expectations so far this year with S&P 500 companies posting record levels of EPS growth, surprises, and beat rates during the first quarter, and 2021 and 2022. annual estimates being revised higher by analysts at a blistering pace as the economic recovery continues to gain steam," BMO Capital Markets strategist Brian Belski wrote in a note last week. 

"As we enter the second half of the year, we believe companies will continue to build on the earnings recovery displayed in recent quarters, as more areas of the economy adapt and get closer to normal levels of activity throughout the year," he added.

As usual, the big banks will be the first major group to report quarterly results. Expectations are exceptionally high for the financial sector, which has come in at the third-best performing S&P 500 sector so far for the year-to-date, topped only by the energy and real estate sectors. And Wall Street has struck an increasingly more upbeat tone on earnings potential for this sector over the past several months, upwardly revising the consensus outlook for these companies' earnings.  

"The Financials sector has recorded the third-largest percentage increase in estimated (dollar-level) earnings of all 11 sectors since the start of the quarter at 11.5% (to $69.8 billion from $62.7 billion)," FactSet's John Butters said in a note. "As a result, the estimated earnings growth rate for this sector has risen to 119.5% from 96.9% during this time." 

Banks are heading into second-quarter results following a strong start to the year. JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Goldman Sachs (GS) and Morgan Stanley (MS) each handily exceeded analyst estimates in the first quarter, when the start of the economic recovery and roaring market activity helped drive strong trading and investment banking results. With stocks rising to record highs and the IPO market posting its busiest month since 2000 in June, both trading and investment banking are set to be strong points yet again for the bulge-bracket banks. 

For the April through June quarter, economic activity picked up even further, with this growth likely helping to further serve as a tailwind for banks' businesses. At the same time, however, interest rates have come down from a year-to-date high in March, which will likely pressure banks' all-important net interest income, or the profit derived from core lending practices. The benchmark U.S. Treasury yield rose to as high as 1.77% in late March before tumbling to around 1.35% as of Friday. 

So far, banks have been split about the path for loan growth in the second half of the year given uncertainty around the pace of the economic recovery after an initial reopening surge. 

According to Deutsche Bank analyst Matt O'Connor, there are still a number of positive drivers for loan growth left this year. 

"Consumer stimulus peaked in March/April and should decline meaningfully during 3Q21," O'Connor wrote. in a note. "Several states didn't fully reopen until near the end of 2Q, including California and New York (a combined 15-20% of the U.S. population and even greater amount of the overall U.S. economy). As activity increases, spending and borrowing should as well."

In addition to the start of earnings season, a couple of closely watched economic data points are due for release this week. 

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) from the Bureau of Labor Statistics will show the extent of price increases for consumers in June as supply chain bottlenecks and labor scarcities weigh on the economic recovery and push inflationary pressure higher. 

The CPI is expected to rise 0.5% over last month following a 0.6% increase in May. Over last year, CPI likely grew by 4.9%, nearly matching May's 13-year high of 5.0%. But excluding more volatile food and energy prices, CPI likely rose by 4.0% last year, or by the most in nearly three decades. 

"We expect another big rise in core consumer prices in June, but there are signs that the severe upward pressure seen in recent months is easing," Paul Ashworth, chief North America economist for Capital Economics, wrote in a note. "The latest data suggest that wholesale used vehicle prices have peaked." 

"Prices in the service sectors hardest hit by the pandemic still appear to be rising rapidly, however, with rising air passenger numbers pointing to another jump of 8% or so in CPI airfares, and the hotel occupancy data consistent with CPI lodging away from home rising by about 4%," he added. "The May report illustrated that price pressures are also emerging in other sectors, with rent of shelter inflation trending higher again and labor shortages in the leisure sector resulting in a 0.6% m/m jump in food away from home prices. Both trends look to have further to run."

With prices moving higher, consumer spending likely also moderated further in June after a stimulus-fueled surge at the start of the year. Consensus economists expect the Commerce Department to report Friday that retail sales dipped by 0.5% in June compared to May, adding to the prior month's 1.3% monthly drop.

The expected drop in headline retail sales will likely be at least partially offset by rising gas prices and the ongoing rebound in restaurant spending. However, Friday's report may still downplay the full range of consumer spending taking place during the recovery given this year's shift back to spending on services as mobility increases. 

"Based on our internal data, June marked the third month where durable goods spending was a drag to overall spending; while services provided a boost," Bank of America economist Michelle Meyer wrote in a. note. "Given that retail sales do not capture any services spending other than restaurant spending, we continue to think retail sales understates the degree of consumer spending recovery, which has largely been driven by services spending (such as traveling and entertainment) in recent months."

Monday: N/A

Tuesday: JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Goldman Sachs (GS), Conagra Brands (CAG), Fastenal (FAST) before market open

Wednesday: Bank of America (BAC), PNC Financial Services (PNC), Wells Fargo (WFC), Delta Air Lines (DAL), BlackRock (BLK), Citi (C) before market open

Thursday: Bank of New York Mellon (BK), US Bancorp (USB), UnitedHealth Group (UNH), The Progressive Corp (PGR), Truist Financial Corp (TFC), Cintas Corp (CTAS), Morgan Stanley (MS) before market open; Alcoa (AA) after market close

Friday: Charles Schwab (SCHW), State Street Corp (STT) before market open

Monday: N/A 

Tuesday: NFIB Small Business Optimism, June (99.5 expected, 99.6 in May); CPI month-over-month, June (0.5% expected, 0.6% in May); CPI excluding food and energy month-over-month, June (0.4% expected, 0.7% in May); CPI year-over-year, June (4.9% expected, 5.0% in May); CPI excluding food and energy year-over-year (4.0% expected, 3.8% in May); Monthly budget statement, June (-$132.0 billion in May)

Wednesday: MBA Mortgage Applications, week ended July 9 (-1.8% expected); PPI final demand, month-over-month, June (0.5% expected, 0.8%. in May); PPI excluding food and energy, month-over-month, June (0.4% expected, 0.7% in May); PPI final demand year-over-year, June (6.7% expected, 6.6% in May); PPI excluding food and energy, year-over-year, June (4.8% in May) 

Thursday: Empire Manufacturing, July (18.7 expected, 17.4 in June); Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Index, July (27.0 expected, 30.7 in June); Initial jobless claims, week ended July 10 (350,000 expected, 373,000 during prior week); Continuing claims, week ended July 3 (3.325 million expected, 3.339 million during prior week); Import price index, month-over-month, June (1.0% expected, 1.1% in May); Export price index month-over-month, June (1.3% expected, 2.2% in May); Industrial production, month-over-month, June (0.6% expected, 0.8% in May); Capacity utilization, June (75.6% expected, 75.2% in May)

Friday: Retail sales advance, month-over-month, June (-0.5% expected, -1.3% in May); Retail sales excluding autos and gas, June (0.2% expected, -0.8% in May); University of Michigan Sentiment, July preliminary (86.5 expected, 85.5 in June); Total Net TIC Flows, May ($101.2 billion in April); Net long-term TIC Flows, May ($100.7 billion in April) 

Emily McCormick is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow her on Twitter: @emily_mcck

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Week Ahead: Volatility On Tap As Earnings Season Starts; Tech Shares Higher | Investing.com

Investing.com 11 July, 2021 - 10:41am

After an uneven week of up and down trade, three of the four US major indices—the S&P 500, Dow Jones and NASDAQ—each closed on Friday at new record highs. Still, there doesn't seem to be a clear narrative driving traders, though that could change in the week ahead as earnings season ramps up.

While stocks returned in force after their worst selloff in weeks, the Reflation Trade once again was the driver of Friday’s acceleration, overshadowing growth stocks, aka technology shares. Still, it was the Russell 2000, which lists small-cap domestic firms that stand to benefit the most from consumers returning to pre-pandemic spending habits, that outperformed. The index's 2.1% advance was twice that of the NASDAQ Composite, which didn’t even gain a full percentage point.

Even the mega cap tech firms listed on the NASDAQ 100 underperformed the Russell, gaining only 0.7%, less than a third of the Russell's rally.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 1.3% of value on Friday, second only to the Russell 2000. The 30-component blue chip index's, mega-cap shares also represent value.

A similar paradigm shift was seen among the market's sectors. Financials, (+2.9%), outperformed, boosted by rising yields, for the first time in a while, and the prospect of rising interest rates, which would increase profit margins among lenders.

Energy shares came in second, (+2.1%), which makes sense as the companies in this sector would fuel—literally and figuratively—the rebuilding of an expanding economy. To be fair, this sector is also benefitting from expectations of what could perhaps be record demand for oil as summer driving and vacation travel escalate, as economies re-open and consumers escape their homes when lockdowns are lifted.

As well, the recent spat among OPEC+ members, which has curbed oil production for now, has been impacting pricing. Nevertheless, the cost of energy generally rises along with economic expansion.

Materials was the third best sector performer last week, (+2%) with Industrials in fourth place, (+1.6%).

On the other end of the Reflation spectrum, Technology and Communications Services, which both rose only 0.9%, didn't do much better than defensive stocks, which tend to underperform during expansion.

Notwithstanding that the tech heavy-NASDAQ indices managed to join the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average in record closes, both of the tech indices fell short of joining the latter two benchmarks at all-time intraday highs.

In the final analysis though, as we have repeatedly demonstrated, technology stocks continue to dominate the market this year. This can be seen on a weekly, monthly, tri-monthly and YTD basis. It’s easily demonstrated visually when comparing the charts.

The NASDAQ 100 is pointing higher:

It's gained 14% since its May low, while trading within an uptrend. On the other hand, take a look at the Russell 2000:

The small-cap index is up only half that amount—6.68%—over the same period. Also, note that it's trading sideways, increasing the chance of a reversal, with a downside breakout of the neckline since the range began.

Most surprising about Friday’s rally is that this market remains the most expensive in history, meaning nothing much has changed.

Inflation continues on the same trajectory, and the Delta variant is still highly contagious, continuing to wreak havoc in both developed as well as poorer countries. It's the dominant strain in under-vaccinated countries but also in the US.

Cases of the variant are rising in almost half the states in the US with one health expert calling it “COVID-19 on steroids."

For all the myriad worries, big-name investment banks including Blackrock (NYSE:BLK), JPMorgan Asset Management (NYSE:JPM) and Morgan Stanley Wealth Management (NYSE:MS)—which between them manage a combined $12 trillion in assets—are confident second-quarter earnings, with reporting starting this coming week, will demonstrate that the economic recovery remains on track.

Meanwhile, global central banks continue supporting the economic recovery with additional stimulus. China's PBoC reduced bank reserve requirements, injecting the Asian nation's economy with more money, and the EU's ECB indicated on Friday it will allow inflation to go past the 2% target, following in the Fed’s footsteps.

Bottom line, we're expecting more volatility. The market narrative keeps flipping from one extreme to another, sometimes as frequently as from one day to the next as participants claim that the economy isn't recovering fast enough while others say it's overheating. And around and around the narrative goes.

Rebounding yields—including for the benchmark 10-year note—boosted cyclically sensitive financials on Friday, but can one day reverse the downtrend?

The bounce in rates follows a bearish triangle (blue), which was the market device bears used to top out yields (red line).

Friday’s rise in yields, meaning the selloff in Treasuries, comes after the downside breakout of the bearish triangle, suggesting this rally could be nothing more than a return-move before another leg down, to increase the rate of the drop from the orange to the red falling channel.

The dollar fell for the second day on Friday, despite rising yields and the re-invigorated Reflation Trade, which should have benefited the US currency. Perhaps traders think the Fed will chase inflation up, during which the dollar’s buying power would be diminished.

The USD has been ranging since November. The direction of the breakout, when it occurs, will push the greenback further in that direction.

Gold blew out a bearish pennant and moved higher.

Then the yellow metal climbed back above the top of the former falling channel, though it has been unable to top Tuesday’s shooting star (red line).

Bitcoin was little changed, as trading on the digital coin has been contracting.

Oil climbed for a second day, following Thursday’s hammer.

However, after having fallen below its uptrend line and noting how far it dipped its previous low, WTI may be developing a top, as is suggested by the MACD’s sell sign and the ROC’s negative divergence.

8:30: US – Core CPI: expected to drop to 0.4%, from 0.7%.

22:00: New Zealand – RBNZ Interest Rate Decision: forecast to remain steady at 0.25%.

2:00: UK – CPI: seen to edge higher to 2.2% from 2.1%.

8:30: US – PPI: likely to decline to 0.5% from 0.8%.

10:00: Canada – BoC Monetary Policy Report and Interest Rate Decision: predicted to remain at 0.25%.

10:30: US – Crude Oil Inventories: last week's print showed a drawdown of 6.866M Bbl.

Tentative: Canada – BOC Press Conference

21:30: Australia – Employment Change: anticipated to plunge to 30.0K from the previous 115.2K.

22:00: China – Industrial Production: seen to dip to 7.9% from 8.8%.

22:00: China – GDP: forecast to plummet to 8.1% from 18.3% YoY, while more than doubling on a quarterly basis, to 1.3% from 0.6%.

2:00: UK – Claimant Count Change: previously printed at -96.2K.

8:30: US – Initial Jobless Claims: expected to come in lower, at 360K from 733K.

8:30: US – Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index; to dip to 28.3 from 30.7.

18:45: New Zealand – CPI: to edge down to 0.7% from 0.8% QoQ.

23:00: Japan – BoJ Monetary Policy Statement, Outlook Report and Press Conference

5:00: Eurozone – CPI: anticipated to remain flat at 1.9%.

8:30: US – Core Retail Sales: seen to jump to 0.5% from -0.7%.

8:30: US – Retail Sales: forecast to rise to -0.4% from -1.3%.

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