Fantasy Football Week 6 sleepers


Yahoo Sports 14 October, 2021 - 10:47am

Which NFL teams have a bye week 6?

The Week 6 quartet of bye teams, the Falcons, Saints, 49ers and Jets, isn't too much of a loss. yahoo.comThe Loop Fantasy Football Report Week 6: First bye week isn't a killer

Finding Tight End Breakouts - Champs, Chumps, and Contenders

RotoBaller 14 October, 2021 - 03:30pm

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This week’s Primer introduction is going to be brief, and I want to use this space to offer thanks.

Thank you to everyone who reached out to lend comfort and express sympathies to Mike Tagliere’s wife Tabbie and to the FantasyPros team after Tags’ recent passing.

Thank you to everyone who donated to the GoFundMe campaign to help Tags’ family.

Thank you to all of the fans and followers who have expressed on Twitter how much Tags meant to you, how much you enjoyed his work and his personality.

At the memorial service and funeral last weekend, some of Tags’ friends and family members told me how grateful they are to the fantasy football community and how much they appreciated the outpouring of love for Tags. They’ve known for years that Tags’ kindness, positivity, and passion for everyone and everything he cared about gave him a glow that attracted others, and it made them happy that everyone in the fantasy community got to see that glow.

If you still want to help Tags’ family, FantasyPros has issued a collection of #TagsStrong hats and T-shirts to commemorate our friend, All proceeds from the Remembering Mike Tagliere collection will be donated to the Tagliere family.

LAR vs. SEA | NYJ vs. ATL | NE vs. HOU | DET vs. MIN | PHI vs. CAR | NO vs. WAS | TEN vs. JAC | MIA vs. TB | GB vs. CIN | DEN vs. PIT | CHI vs. LV | CLE vs. LAC | NYG vs. DAL | SF vs. ARI | BUF vs. KC | IND vs. BAL |

Matthew Stafford: After lighting up the Buccaneers for 343 yards and four touchdowns in Week 3, Stafford was just so-so in a lopsided loss to the Cardinals last week, completing 26 of 41 passes for 280 yards with two touchdowns and one interception. This is a nice bounce-back spot for Stafford, provided he isn’t rattled by Seattle’s raucous 12s on Thursday night. Seahawks fans can yell, but they can’t cover, and neither can the Seattle cornerbacks. Opposing quarterbacks have completed 66.9% of their throws against the Seahawks this season, averaging 7.9 yards per attempt, with eight touchdowns and one interception. Seattle’s opponent passer rating is 105.1, eighth-worst in the league. And the Seahawks haven’t exactly faced the crème de la crème of NFL quarterbacks so far: Carson Wentz, Ryan Tannehill, Kirk Cousins, and Jimmy Garoppolo/Trey Lance. They could be in big trouble against a big-league passer like Stafford. He’s my QB7 this week, and he’s close to a mandatory buy at $17,100 in the DraftKings showdown slate.

Russell Wilson: If you’re a Wilson investor, you’re probably a little nervous that Russ is averaging 27.3 pass attempts per game. But maybe it’s not about the Seahawks failing to let Russ cook. Seattle has run a league-low 200 offensive plays and ranks last in time of possession. That doesn’t have much to do with a slow pace – Seattle ranks a middling 18th in seconds per offensive play. In some ways, Wilson is a victim of his own success. The Seahawks’ offense was so efficient early in the season and had so many touchdowns on long scoring plays – they had TDs of 69, 68, and 63 yards in their first two games – that they simply didn’t have the ball very often. The greater concern for Wilson stakeholders this week is the matchup. Russ had just one TD pass in two games against the Rams in 2020. But is the Rams’ pass defense still elite? They allowed a league-low 14.5 fantasy points per game to opposing QBs last year. They’ve given up 20.7 points per game to opposing QBs so far this year, putting them in the middle of the pack. I have Wilson ranked QB 12 this week.

Darrell Henderson and Sony Michel: After Michael lost a fumble early in the season quarter of the Rams’ 37-20 loss to the Rams in Week 4, he didn’t get another touch the rest of the way. Henderson dominated the workload against Arizona, playing 90% of the snaps and finishing with 14-89-0 rushing and 5-27-0 receiving. If Henderson sees that sort of usage on Thursday night, he could be in for a big game. The Seahawks are giving up 24.1 fantasy points per game to opposing running backs, the third-highest total in the league. Consider Henderson a high-end RB2 this week. You could probably make a case for Henderson as an RB1, but I don’t know if he’ll see enough rushing volume to get there in a game that also sets up beautifully for Matthew Stafford.

Chris Carson and Alex Collins: Carson has been regarded as one of the more secure lead backs in the league. Could Collins give us a reason to second-guess that? With Carson generating little yardage Sunday against the San Francisco defense and also dealing with some sort of hamstring issue, Collins provided a spark, rushing 10 times for 44 yards and a touchdown. He looked frisky on his 14-yard TD run, making a decisive cut to blast through a crease and then cutting back again before reaching the end zone. And though he’s never been much of a pass catcher, Collins also had two receptions for 34 yards, including a 28-yarder, and this wasn’t garbage-time work either. Carson had 13-30-1 rushing and one catch for one yard. He played 25 snaps; Collins played 22. Carson’s lead role isn’t being threatened, but his share of the workload could drop if Collins continues to play well – or if Carson isn’t fully healthy. The Seahawks face a Rams defense that hasn’t been stellar against the run through the first four games, giving up 4.7 yards per carry and six rushing touchdowns. Cardinals RBs Chase Edmonds and James Conner pasted the Rams for a combined 30-170-2 on the ground last weekend. Carson missed practice early in the week with a neck injury. If he isn’t able to play, Collins would get most of the early-down work with Travis Homer playing on passing downs. Collins is a must at $4,800 in Thursday-night DraftKings showdowns.

Cooper Kupp: He had the rare inefficient day in Week 4, with 5-64-0 on 13 targets against the Cardinals, but Kupp has seen at least 10 targets in every game this season and is still the WR1 in 0.5 PPR fantasy scoring at 21.9 points per game. Kupp figures to take most of his snaps against Seattle slot corner Ugo Amadi in what should be a smash matchup. PFF had graded Amadi 106th out of 108 cornerbacks through the first four weeks of the season. I have Kupp ranked WR4 this week, but there’s basically nothing separating the top four receivers in this week’s rankings. At $18,600, Kupp is even pricier than Matthew Stafford or Russell Wilson in DraftKings showdowns, and it’s probably justified.

Robert Woods: He scored his second touchdown of the season Sunday against Atlanta, but it was a garbage-time special, coming with 1:14 remaining in a game the Rams trailed by 24 points at the time. Woods entered the fourth quarter of that game with just two targets and finished with 4-48-1 on six targets. There are bound to be better days ahead for Woods, who’s currently WR39 in half-point PPR fantasy scoring, but the value gap between Woods and Cooper Kupp has gone from a crevice to a chasm. With Seahawks CB Tre Flowers recently demoted Woods will take most of his snaps against ex-Eagle Sidney Jones in a matchup the Rams’ receiver should be able to win. Still, Woods only slots in as a midrange WR3 this week.

Van Jefferson: Jefferson had six targets against the Buccaneers in Week 3, six more against the Cardinals in Week 4, and he has a decent chance to match that total in Week 5 against a Rams defense that’s been somewhat of a pass funnel, with opponents throwing 63% of the time against the Rams so far this season. Jefferson has the least favorable matchup of the Rams’ receivers, drawing D.J. Reed, though Reed is by no means a lockdown cover man. Jefferson checks in at WR59 and probably won’t merit lineup consideration this week in season-long leagues, but his $7.200 price tag makes him a nice money-saving option in the DraftKings showdown slate.

D.K. Metcalf: Even with the Seahawks ranking last in the league in time of possession and number of plays run, Metcalf is the WR15 in half-point PPR scoring, just 2.3 points out of WR1 range. There’s nothing to worry about long-term. But in the short term? In his two games against the Rams last year, Metcalf had a combined 8-87-0. He was blanketed by Rams CB Jalen Ramsey to the tune of 2-28-0 in the first meeting. He had a more respectful but not exactly impactful 6-59-0 in the second game. Metcalf lined up in a variety of spots in the second meeting and didn’t see Ramsey’s coverage as often, and some of the Rams claimed the Seahawks were trying to hide Metcalf from Ramsey’s coverage. Fantasy managers run the gamut in terms of their sensitivity to tough matchups, but I hope no fantasy manager in America would bench Metcalf in a season-long league. Fade him in DFS if you must (I probably will, too), but he’s my WR8 this week.

Tyler Lockett: If D.K. Metcalf sees the shadow coverage of Jalen Ramsey on Thursday night, maybe this will be a big Lockett game. But then again, maybe not. When Ramsey shadowed Metcalf in Week 10 of last year, Lockett only had a 5-66-0 game. Perhaps Lockett investors are already wondering if they’re going to see a repeat of 2020 when the receiver started fast but then faded. He started 2021 with 12-278-3 in his first two games, but he’s had 8-55-0 in his last two. Be patient. The Seahawks have run the fewest plays of any team in the league. Business should pick up for Lockett soon. He’s my WR9 this week.

Tyler Higbee: He has yet to pop, but Higbee has checked in with at least four catches and 36 yards in three out of four starts. Higbee is dealing with some sort of ankle injury, so double-check that he’s active before slotting him into your lineup.

Zach Wilson: The rookie from BYU is coming off his best game with the Jets to date, having hung 297 yards and a pair of TD passes on the Titans in a 27-24 win. Now he gets a nice draw against a bad Falcons defense. Atlanta’s pass defense ranks 28th in Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric and has a league-worst opponent passer rating of 120.1. The Falcons have allowed 11 TD passes and have zero interceptions. Wilson checks in at QB23 in my rankings this week. He’s probably not a consideration in single-QB redraft leagues, but he’s playable in superflex leagues, and I sort of like him as a $5,100 supersaver on DraftKings. One thing that would be nice to see from Wilson is some running. He was a willing and able runner in college, scoring 10 rushing touchdowns in his final college season. But through four games with the Jets, he’s run seven times for 19 yards.

Matt Ryan: With their youth at cornerback, I thought the Jets’ pass defense would be one we’d want to attack in fantasy this year. But I may have underestimated the impact of new head coach Robert Saleh, the former defensive coordinator of the 49ers. The Jets have allowed the third-fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks so far, largely because they’ve only allowed two TD passes. This has been a respectable pass defense by most metrics. Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric has the Jets ranked 18th in pass defense so far. That’s why I can’t get too excited about Ryan even after his four-TD performance against Washington last week. I have him ranked QB20 and won’t consider him in DFS.

Michael Carter, Ty Johnson, and Tevin Coleman: Carter had a season-high 51% snap share in Week 4, carrying 13 times for 38 yards and his first NFL touchdown. He’s had three targets in each of his last three games but has yet to make any significant impact as a pass-catcher. Maybe some fantasy managers will be forced to start Carter in Week 5, but you’d have to be under duress at the RB position to play him. He’s getting closer to weekly lineup consideration, though, and we should probably look at this week’s game against the Falcons as a dress rehearsal of sorts. A good day against a mediocre Falcons defense would help Carter earn trust from fantasy managers and consideration for a starting role going forward. Carter checks in at RB34 this week. Johnson and Coleman are settling into supporting roles, and supporting roles in a mediocre Jets offense simply aren’t valuable.

Cordarrelle Patterson and Mike Davis: If you’re fortunate enough to have Patterson on your roster, I think you owe it to yourself to explore the trade market for him. That’s not to cast doubt on his ability. Patterson has always been electric with the ball in his hands, and it’s pretty cool that Falcons head coach Arthur Smith has carved out a significant role for him. But this is clearly a sell-high situation. The 30-year-old Patterson has scored five touchdowns in four games, and he’s touched the ball on 45 of his 97 snaps. Those numbers simply aren’t sustainable. I’m willing to believe Patterson’s unique role can give him midrange to low-end RB2 value the rest of the way. But a lot of people have stars in their eyes when talking about Patterson these days, so it’s worth it to field trade offers and see what the market could bring. I have him at RB20 and WR29 this week. Davis had his first touchdown of the season in Week 4, scoring on a seven-yard reception. He’s averaging 12.3 carries a game, but he’s averaging 3.1 yards per carry and 4.2 yards per target. Davis is a mid-range RB3 for Week 5. It should be noted that Wayne Gallman got some late carries last week and could be a threat to Davis’s already tenuous fantasy value.

Corey Davis: The normally sure-handed Davis already has four drops, which is one more than he had all of last season. But the drops are relatively insignificant. Davis’s role as Zach Wilson‘s primary downfield target matters more. Davis caught 4 of 7 targets for 111 yards and a touchdown last week against the Titans. The TD was a 53-yard beauty from Wilson where Davis got a step on his defender, then maintained his concentration to make the catch with the defender closing ground. Davis now has three touchdowns on the year and has finished top seven in WR fantasy scoring in two of his four games. His average depth of target is 13.8 yards, so these are valuable, high-cholesterol targets, as my friend Rich Hribar would say. Forget about the drops, and don’t hesitate to use Davis against a bad Atlanta defense this week. I have him ranked WR25, and that’s probably too low. At only $5,600 on DraftKings, Davis is going to find his way into a couple of my Week 5 lineups.

Jamison Crowder: Making his 2021 debut after missing the first three games with a core injury, Crowder caught 7 of 9 targets for 61 yards and a touchdown against the Titans in Week 4. I’m guilty of perennially underrating Crowder, who has a way of earning quarterbacks’ trust, not to mention the targets that go along with that trust. Elijah Moore was a buzzy player all spring and summer, but he’s working his way back from a concussion, and it’s not clear what his role will be when he comes back. For now, we have to regard Crowder as the Jets’ primary slot man. He played 62% of the Jets’ offensive snaps last week, and that’s probably a good baseline expectation for his role going forward. I have Crowder at WR51 this week in a plus matchup against the Jets.

Calvin Ridley: Ridley has averaged 9.0 yards per target for his career, but he’s averaging only 6.1 yards per target this year. Maybe part of that can be attributed to the deterioration of QB Matt Ryan, who’s no longer one of the 10 best passers in the league. But Ridley would probably tell you he hasn’t been playing his best football either. He failed to come down with a couple of balls he probably could have caught against Washington in Week 4, so his 7-80-0 receiving day could have been better. It’s worth trusting the volume, however. Ridley is averaging 10.5 targets and 6.8 receptions per game, and with usage like that, the fantasy points are going to come. He’s a low-end WR1 for his matchup against a surprisingly respectable Jets pass defense this week.

Ryan Griffin and Tyler Kroft: These two are splitting snaps and targets. Griffin has 13 targets and is averaging 3.5 yards per target. Kroft has 10 targets at 4.6 yards per target. Blech.

Kyle Pitts: Pitts had a season-high nine targets last week but could only turn them into four receptions for 50 yards. He’s still looking for his first NFL touchdown. It hasn’t been an exciting start to his career, but Pitts is running a lot of routes and averaging 54.8 air yards per game. The usage exceeds the numbers so far, so don’t stop believin’, as Steve Perry might say. Continue to fire him up in season-long leagues even though the Jets have allowed only 4.6 fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends. They haven’t faced a great group of TEs, so you can safely disregard that stat. Pitts’ price has sunk to $4,700 on DraftKings, and he’s a reasonable option in GPPs at that price, though I think there are better cash-game values at tight end.

Mac Jones: Jones acquitted himself well in the Tom Brady homecoming game last weekend in Foxborough, completing 31 of 40 passes for 275 yards and throwing two TD passes in a game for the first time in his career. In some ways, the Texans might pose a tougher matchup for Jones in Week 5 than the Buccaneers did in Week 4. The Texans’ pass defense ranks eighth in Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric, while the Buccaneers’ pass D ranks 21st. Opponents have averaged 46.5 pass attempts per game against the Bucs but only 34.3 against the Texans, and the probability of lower pass volume might squeeze Jones’ fantasy potential this week. He’s ranked QB25.

Davis Mills: In his two starts, Mills’ weekly fantasy finishes have been QB27 and QB38. (Yes, QB38.) After throwing four interceptions against the Bills, who lead the league in opponent passer rating, Mills now faces the Patriots, who rank second in that category. New England’s opponents have completed 56.5% of their throws for an average of 6.5 yards per attempt. The Patriots have allowed only three TD passes and have five interceptions. Mills is ranked a bottom-of-the-barrel QB32.

Damien Harris: In the last two weeks, Harris has faced two of the best run defenses in the league, taking on the Saints and Buccaneers. The results: 10 carries for 10 yards. Harris should be able to find his way back to fantasy relevance this week against the Texans, who have given up eight rushing touchdowns and are letting opponents run for 137 yards per game. Despite the rough sledding against Tampa Bay in Week 4, Harris played a season-high 62% of the Patriots’ offensive snaps, and his role seems secure. He checks in at RB21. Even with the plus matchup, I can’t recommend him as a DraftKings play at $5,500 due to his minimal pass-catching upside.

Mark Ingram, David Johnson, and Phillip Lindsay: Ingram ranks RB48 in fantasy scoring (0.5 PPR), Johnson is RB49, Lindsay is RB59. Lindsay is clearly the No. 3 man, but the snap shares have oscillated for Ingram and Johnson depending on game script. The constant flow of negative game scripts for the Texans would seem to favor Johnson, the more accomplished pass catcher. But with all three men averaging six or fewer fantasy points, this is not a guessing game you want to play.

Jakobi Meyers: With the Patriots facing tough rushing matchups against the Saints and Buccaneers the last two weeks, Meyers served as a proxy for the running game, seeing an abundance of short-area targets. He was targeted 14 times against the Saints and 12 times against the Bucs, totaling 17 catches for 164 yards in those two games. Meyers figures to remain a prominent part of the game plan in Week 5 even though the Texans aren’t capable of shutting down anyone’s running game. But Meyers is averaging 9.1 yards per catch and 6.0 yards per target, so there’s not a lot of big-play potential, and Meyers has now played 33 NFL games without scoring a touchdown. Consider him a low-end WR3.

Nelson Agholor: After going for 5-72-1 in his Patriots debut, Agholor has totaled 8-93-0 in the three games since. Agholor doesn’t get an easy matchup this week, drawing solid Houston CB Terrance Mitchell. Agholor falls into WR5 range this week.

Kendrick Bourne: Over the last two weeks Bourne has had 11-154-1, but was his production driven by matchups against a pair of pass-funnel defenses? That’s the guess here. Bourne is the third receiver on a team that uses 11 personnel often. He’s played 59% of the Patriots’ offensive snaps this season. In New England’s first two games, Bourne totaled 3-27-0. I don’t think he’s worth rostering in most leagues.

Brandon Cooks: In a game where the Texans were shut out 40-0 and generated 109 total yards, Cooks’ 5-47-0 stat line against the Bills last week was actually pretty encouraging. The Texans were as bad as they could possibly be, yet Cooks’ final numbers weren’t disastrous. Even after the slow day, Cooks still checks in as the WR13 in half-point PPR scoring. He’s a midrange WR3 this week. I’m not quite on board with him at his $6,100 price tag on DraftKings.

Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith: The usage numbers here are interesting. Henry has played at least a 68% snap share in every game. Smith’s snap share has been at 50% or lower in each of the last three weeks. Henry has run 110 routes this season, Smith just 63. And yet, Smith has out-targeted Henry 21-18. Henry has 14-141-1 on the year, Smith has 13-88-1. There might be a chance for both of them to eat against a Texans defense that’s giving up 12.9 fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends, tied with the Ravens for the highest total in the league. I have Henry ranked TE12 this week, Smith TE14.

Pharaoh Brown and Jordan Akins: They’ve combined for 11 catches and 126 yards, split fairly evenly between them. There’s just so little production to go around in this passing attack that speculating on a Texans TE isn’t worth it. Maybe it would be if Deshaun Watson were playing.

Jared Goff: There are going to be weeks when Goff hits simply because he’ll be in pass-heavy game scripts with the Lions trailing big and facing defenses that are willing to give up easy completions while guarding against big plays. Goff found himself in that sort of game script against the 49ers in Week 1 and against the Bears in Week 4. He threw for 299 yards and two TDs against Chicago last Sunday. But a road game against a solid Minnesota pass defense isn’t a good spot for Goff, who’s likely to be without injured offensive linemen Frank Ragnow and Taylor Decker for this one.

Kirk Cousins: The Cleveland defense made Cousins look bad in Week 4, but we should probably get used to that sort of thing. In Week 3, the Browns held the Bears to just 47 yards of offense and sacked rookie QB Justin Fields nine times. It’s a defense that can put intense pressure on opposing quarterbacks, and Cousins looked uncomfortable throughout the Vikings’ 14-7 loss, completing 20 of 38 passes for 203 yards with one touchdown and one interception. Week 5 offers Cousins a great bounce-back spot, though. The Lions are dealing with multiple injuries at cornerback, and now they’re going to be without their best pass rusher, Romeo Okwara, who just went on IR. I have Cousins at QB9 and don’t mind him as a DraftKings play at $6,500 (though I wish the price were a bit lower). Cousins lit up a bad Seattle pass defense for 323 yards and three touchdowns in Week 3, and he could put up the same kind of numbers against Detroit on Sunday.

D’Andre Swift and Jamaal Williams: Swift and Williams combined for 82 rushing yards against Chicago in Week 4 but should fare better in Week 5 against a Minnesota defense with run-funneling tendencies. Opponents have run against the Vikings on 45% of their offensive snaps, above the league average of 41%. Even after a quiet game, Swift is still the RB9 in half-point PPR scoring and a no-brainer for starting lineups. His DraftKings price of $6,100 provides ample value. As solid as Williams has been this season, he profiles as a lower-end RB3 this week. After catching 8 of 9 targets in the season opener against the 49ers – a game in which the Lions were in catch-up mode and Jared Goff was throwing a ton of short dump-offs – Williams has seen just five targets in the three games since.

Dalvin Cook and Alexander Mattison: Cook had 9-34-0 rushing and 2-10-0 receiving against the Browns last week. He was making his return from an ankle injury that kept him sidelined in Week 3, and Cook briefly left the game against Cleveland in the third quarter after tweaking the bad ankle, only to return in the fourth quarter with the game still close. Cook investors can only hope the ankle is completely fit, because the spot couldn’t be much better. Opponents have run the ball against the Lions on 52% of their offensive snaps – the highest rate in the league. In his lone game against Detroit last season, Cook ran for 206 yards and two TDs (and added 46 receiving yards). It’s possible the Vikings ease back on Cook’s usage this week, which would almost make backup Alexander Mattison flex-worthy.

Quintez Cephus, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Kalif Raymond: Cephus led this group with an 87% snap share in Week 4 and caught 4 of 5 passes for 83 yards. Brown played a season-high 72% snap share and had 6-70-0 on eight targets. They’re worth monitoring but not trustworthy enough to use. Tyrell Williams, on IR with a concussion, is eligible to return next week, further muddying these waters.

Justin Jefferson: Jefferson has looked magnificent the last two weeks, going for 15-202-2 on 18 targets. He was the only thing working for Minnesota offensively against the Browns last week. With Jeff Okudah done for the year with a ruptured Achilles, the Lions don’t have a cornerback on the roster capable of hanging with Jefferson. He’s my WR3 this week, and I don’t mind the $7,700 splurge for him in DraftKings cash games.

Adam Thielen: Mr. Touchdown failed to find the end zone in Week 4 for the first time all season, but he has a great chance to visit the painted turf this week in a juicy matchup against a decimated Lions defense that’s forced to use multiple backup cornerbacks in nickel and dime sets. Thielen has been held to 50 or fewer receiving yards in three consecutive games, but he’s seen at least seven targets in all four games. Regard him as a midrange WR2 this week.

K.J. Osborn: Even the Vikings’ third receiver is borderline startable in a primo matchup against a battle-scarred Detroit secondary. Osbourne is averaging six targets a game, and he picked up 10 yards on an end-around last week. He lands at WR52 in my rankings this week.

T.J. Hockenson: Hock has had two straight quiet games. After a 2-10-0 performance against the Ravens in Week 3, he had 4-42-0 against the Bears in Week 4. But Hockenson had eight targets against Chicago, and he’s had at least that many targets in three of four games. You’re using him in season-long leagues, but maybe not in DFS with a price of $5,500 on DraftKings.

Tyler Conklin: A week after going for 7-70-1 against the Seahawks, Conklin had a 4-18-0 receiving line against the Browns. It wasn’t a very productive day, but the fact that Conklin had six targets and played a season-high 85% snap share was encouraging. He’s a high-end TE2 against Detroit this week.

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