Key inflation measure climbs to highest level since 1992

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CNN 25 June, 2021 - 09:19am 51 views

Updated 10:19 AM ET, Fri June 25, 2021

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Key inflation indicator posts biggest year-over-year gain in nearly three decades

CNBC 25 June, 2021 - 11:02am

A key inflation indicator that the Federal Reserve uses to set policy rose 3.4% in May, the fastest increase since the early 1990s, the Commerce Department reported Friday.

Though the gain was the biggest since April 1992, it met the Dow Jones estimate and markets reacted little to the news. Stock market futures indicated a rise of about 150 points for the Dow at the open, while government bond yields were mostly flat.

The core personal consumption expenditures price index increase reflects the rapid pace of economic expansion and resulting price pressures, and amplified how far the nation has come since the Covid pandemic-induced shutdown of 2020.

Though the reading could add to inflation concerns, Fed officials continue to insist that they see the current situation as temporary and likely to abate as conditions return to normal.

The core index rose 0.5% for the month, which actually was below the 0.6% estimate.

Including volatile food and energy prices, the PCE index rose 3.9% for the year and 0.4% for the month.

Most of the inflation increase came from energy, with prices rising 27.4% against just a 0.4% gain in food costs.

The headline increase was the biggest since August 2008, just before the worst of the financial crisis hit and sent inflation on a path lower that would last throughout the longest economic recovery in U.S. history.

Inflation has spiked recently amid a confluence of factors. They include supply chain disruptions in which manufacturers of key products have been unable to keep up with escalating demand that has come with the economic reopening.

Soaring real estate prices also have played a factor as lumber costs have soared, though that trend has reversed lately.

Finally, the current numbers are influenced by what economists call "base effects," or skewed comparisons with a year ago when government restrictions put much of the economy in limbo. Those base effects are likely to dissipate when the June numbers come out next month.

A separate part of Thursday's report showed that consumer spending was flat for the month, versus the estimate for a 0.4% increase, while personal income declined 2%, less than the expected 2.7% decline. Those numbers also had been distorted, primarily by government stimulus checks that had sharply boosted both income and spending.

The personal saving rate was 12.4%, a decline from April's 14.5%.

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Who You Gonna Believe on Monetary Policy?

The Wall Street Journal 25 June, 2021 - 11:02am

Now that Covid seems to be receding as an economic threat, what happens to all that potential purchasing power? Who is overseeing monetary policy to ensure that inflation doesn’t undermine economic recovery? Joseph C. Sternberg poses the question: “Is There a Central Banker in the House?” (Political Economics, June 18) and wonders why, with inflation exceeding the Fed’s predictions, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell plays down the risk in his public comments. Delivering price stability is part of the U.S. central bank’s mandate from Congress, after all, yet the Fed remains in “accommodative” monetary mode.

It’s time to confront both the fiscal and monetary aspects of inflation: Government policies that cause prices to rise without expanding productive economic output amount to an expropriation of wealth—one that hurts the poor the most.

The latest “forward guidance” from Mr. Powell may assuage the fears of market investors who don’t want to see any reduction in the Fed’s monthly bond purchases. But it’s a different story for those struggling to pay rising bills—for groceries, gas, furniture and rent. “Who you gonna believe,” goes the famous line from the Marx Brothers’ “Duck Soup,” “me or your own eyes?”

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Fed's preferred inflation reading posts biggest annual increase since 1992

Fox Business 25 June, 2021 - 07:22am

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Thru the Cycle President John Lonski on inflation concerns and the impact of the biggest surge in consumer spending in decades.

Core personal consumption expenditures, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation reading, rose in May by the most in nearly three decades as the U.S. economy continued to gain momentum while COVID-19 lockdown restrictions eased.

Core PCE, which excludes food and energy, jumped 3.4% annually, up from the 3.1% increase in April, the Bureau of Economic Analysis said. The reading was the strongest since April 1992. Prices rose 0.5% on a monthly basis, slowing slightly from April’s 0.7% gain. 

Analysts surveyed by Refinitiv were expecting a 3.4% annual increase and 0.6% monthly gain. 

Overall, personal consumption expenditures rose 3.9% year over year and 0.4% from April.

"We don’t believe that this data will impact the Fed’s current plans for reducing extraordinary stimulus (i.e. "tapering") and rate hikes," said Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer for Independent Advisor Alliance. "Between the most recent Dot Plot and Fed speeches, they have shown interest in beginning a tapering plan in the next 6-12 months (and announcing that plan within 3-6 months) and potentially raising rates as soon as 18 months from now."

Additionally, personal income declined 2% in May as the impact from stimulus checks continued to subside. Income fell 13.1% in April. 

Spending was unchanged in May. The prior month's reading was revised up to an increase of 0.9% from 0.5% growth. 

Analysts were anticipating income to decline 2.5% and consumption to tick up 0.4%. 

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Dollar edges lower ahead of U.S. inflation data

Reuters 25 June, 2021 - 06:25am

The risk-sensitive Antipodean currencies rose, as did the euro , gaining 0.1% to $1.1943, and the Japanese yen , which rose by about the same margin to 110.77 per dollar.

Such small moves left most of the dollar's recent gains intact, after it was vaulted higher in the wake of a surprise shift in policy outlook from the Federal Reserve - which last week flagged sooner-than-expected interest rate rises.

Inflation data on Friday will offer the latest indication of how much pressure the Fed is under to move, as will labour market figures due in a week's time - leaving traders unwilling to sell the dollar too hard just in case it bounces again soon.

Economists polled by Reuters expect the core personal consumption expenditures index to post its fastest rise in nearly three decades, with year-on-year gains of 3.4%. The data is due at 1230 GMT.

"...The consensus is already expecting quite a large increase in the May PCE inflation data - looking for 3.9% YoY headline and 3.4% YoY core," said strategists at ING in a note to clients.

"The bar may therefore be high for a nasty surprise and one that might push the Fed into early tapering and tightening. Barring a surprise on the PCE inflation, we would say the dollar index continues to consolidate - perhaps drifting back towards the 91.50 area."

A combination of soothing comments on Thursday from New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams and hopes for a huge U.S. infrastructure spending plan supported the mood in financial markets, helping riskier currencies. read more

The New Zealand dollar has crept back above its 200-day moving average to $0.7076, although it remains well shy of February highs above 74 cents. The Australian dollar rose 0.2% to $0.7595.

Moves were larger in smaller markets and the South Korean won hit its strongest in over a week, while the Thai baht extended its bounce from a one-year low.

"From a technical perspective, a lot of (Asian) currencies started to get into oversold territory," said Khoon Goh, head of Asia research at ANZ, which together with the quarter-end timing has prompted exporters to sell dollars for local currencies.

"The next phase for FX markets is who's next," Goh added.

"The Fed has changed their tune and turned more hawkish for good reason: the U.S. economy is doing well. But it's not just the U.S. economy that's doing well...that's why I think the dollar's not necessarily going to keep going up."

On that front, the absence of any rate hike hints from the Bank of England knocked sterling on Thursday, while a surprise lift to rates in Mexico sent the peso zooming.

Bank of England policymakers even warned against "premature tightening" and the pound was the worst performing G10 currency on Thursday. It was pinned at $1.3916 in both the Asian and early deals in Europe.

Bitcoin was firm at $34,175 and headed for a small weekly loss, as it has recovered most of a plunge below $30,000.

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Take Five: The missing piece in the Fed puzzle

Reuters 25 June, 2021 - 03:15am

Next Friday's U.S. employment report will allow investors to gauge whether a powerful U.S. recovery could push the Federal Reserve to start unwinding ultra-easy monetary policies sooner than expected.

An unexpectedly hawkish Fed shifting its first post-pandemic rate hike into 2023 took markets by surprise, briefly denting stocks - before they returned to record highs thanks to soothing words from chief Jerome Powell.

Inflation alone won't be enough to drive rate hikes, he reassured markets. Adding perky jobs data to the mix could change that picture, markets fear. Analysts expect the economy to add 600,000 jobs in June - the largest monthly gain in three months – up from a gain of 559,000 jobs in May.

-ANALYSIS-Fed's "big tent" framework may fray under inflation surge read more

Major central banks claim to be looking past short-term inflation rises but a pick up in price pressures is testing their resolve. The U.S. Fed has shifted to a hawkish bias. Now it's the European Central Bank's turn with Wednesday's June flash inflation release.

Euro zone inflation zipped above its near-2% target in May and ECB chief economist Philip Lane is confident there is no new paradigm -- wage growth after all remains weak.

Hold on, say others, noting manufacturing input prices rose to the highest in nearly 2-1/2 decades in June, meaning it's beginning to feel like the 1970s, when the inflation beast last stirred. The great debate continues.

- ECB policymakers at odds on inflation strategy, hope for Sept deal -sources read more

Investors might be sad to see H1 end after what has been a very happy six months for many major asset classes.

Oil's 45% leap is its best first half in 12 years, world stocks (.MIWD00000PUS) are on course for their second best H1 of the century so far and though the FAANGs have been subdued by their stellar standards, industrial metals are red hot and staples like corn and soybeans are up nearly 40%.

The second half looks harder to call. More virulent COVID strains keep pandemic experts nervy, China's powerhouse economy looks to be slowing, the commodity and food price surge drives up inflation. That makes it harder for major economies to justify more stimulus, while a number of emerging markets are hiking rates as a precaution.

-Oil climbs to highest in over two years as U.S. supplies tighten read more

IPO markets never had it so good - or have they? Record issuance from the United States, Europe and Asia would suggest the money central banks pour into economies is put to good use supporting entrants to world stock markets.

But cracks are appearing. Some mid-cap deals pulled stock market debuts recently: Marex Spectron in London, PHE Holdings in Paris and Primafrio in Madrid. Bankers blame investor "indigestion" - a buyside becoming picky with so many deals already priced.

But Nordgold aborting its debut might be the first casualty of expected central bank tightening as the hawkish Fed pushed gold 6% lower. With Wise embarking on its road show and a huge pipeline of IPO candidates lining up for September, the question is if there will be more.

-UPDATE 1-UK fintech Wise set to list in London on July 7 read more

The chorus of China bulls has quietened down a bit if the thicket of outlook slideshows so far is any guide.

Investment houses are coalescing around a full-year forecast for 8-point-something percent growth. That is huge, but for a few it represents a downward revision for the second half made in response to disappointing data and some gathering headwinds.

Tightening credit conditions and stubbornly sluggish retail sales are a handbrake on domestic consumption. Demand for exported goods is also flagging as the world reopens.

Industrial profit data on Sunday will be the next guide on the economy, while investors keep one eye on the yuan, which looks set to have one of its worst months since mid-2019, recoiling from a long rally that took it to a three-year high.

-China's regulators struggle to sway companies on currency risk read more

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Dollar dips, but with a wary eye on U.S. inflation data

Reuters 25 June, 2021 - 01:07am

The risk-sensitive Antipodean currencies rose very slightly, while the euro gained 0.1% to $1.1940 and the yen rose by about the same margin to 110.80 per dollar.

Such small moves left most of the dollar's recent gains intact, after it was vaulted higher in the wake of a surprise shift in policy outlook from the Federal Reserve - which last week flagged sooner-than-expected interest rate rises.

Inflation data due later on Friday will offer the latest indication of how much pressure the Fed is under to move, as will labour market figures due in a week's time - leaving traders unwilling to sell the dollar too hard just in case it bounces again soon.

"The dollar can jump if inflation surprises to the upside," said Joe Capurso, head of international economics at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia in Sydney. "Upside inflation surprises have been the trend in the U.S. recently," he added.

Others said it would take a big number to move markets.

Economists polled by Reuters expect core personal consumption expenditures index to post its fastest rise in nearly three decades, with year-on-year gains of 3.4%. The data is due at 1230 GMT.

In Asia, a combination of soothing overnight comments from New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams and hopes for a huge U.S. infrastructure spending plan supported the mood in financial markets, helping riskier currencies. read more

The New Zealand dollar has crept back above its 200-day moving average to $0.7070, although it remains well shy of February highs above 74 cents. The Australian dollar rose 0.1% to $0.7591.

Moves were larger in smaller markets and the South Korean won hit its strongest in over a week, while the Thai baht extended its bounce from a one-year low.

"From a technical perspective, a lot of (Asian) currencies started to get into oversold territory," said Khoon Goh, head of Asia research at ANZ, which together with the quarter-end timing has prompted exporters to sell dollars for local currencies.

"The next phase for FX markets is who's next," Goh added.

"The Fed has changed their tune and turned more hawkish for good reason: the U.S. economy is doing well. But it's not just the U.S. economy that's doing well...that's why I think the dollar's not necessarily going to keep going up."

On that front, the absence of any rate hike hints from the Bank of England knocked sterling on Thursday, while a surprise lift to rates in Mexico sent the peso zooming.

Bank of England policymakers even warned against "premature tightening" and the pound was the worst performing G10 currency on Thursday. It stayed at $1.3920 in the Asia session.

Bitcoin was firm at $34,650 and headed for a small weekly loss, as it has recovered most of a plunge below $30,000.

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Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD not out of the woods yet, focus on PCE inflation

FXStreet 24 June, 2021 - 11:00pm

Gold price fell on Thursday after witnessing yet another day of choppy trading while maintaining familiar levels below the $1800 level. The up and down moves could be largely associated to the Fed’s expectations on the monetary policy amid mixed messages on interest rates and inflation from the officials at the world’s most powerful central bank. Meanwhile, the recent series of US economic data, including the New Home Sales, Markit Services PMI and Durable Goods continue to disappoint, pointing to a plateauing economic recovery. Gold’s downside, however, remained limited as US President Joe Biden’s $1.2 trillion infrastructure deal was finally reached with Bipartisan support. The US stimulus deal sent Wall Street indices to record high and dented the dollar’s safe-haven appeal. Although, the risk-on mood spurred a rise in the Treasury yields kept gold’s upside in check, as the price closed below the $1780 level.

This Friday, the final trading day of the week, nothing seems to have changed for gold – either fundamentally or technically. But gold bulls may be attempting their last dance before today’s US PCE inflation data reaffirms the FOMC’s hawkish turn, negating the recent dovish comments from several Fed’s policymakers. The US dollar, therefore, could snap its corrective downside and resume its uptrend, as gold bearish bias is likely to continue. In the meantime,  US stimulus optimism-led risk tone and the dollar’s dynamics will likely play out.

A downside breakout from the bear pennant formation on gold’s daily chart remains well on the cards, especially after the death cross got confirmed on Thursday.

A death cross generates a bearish signal when the 200-Daily Moving Average (DMA) cuts the 50-DMA from above. Also, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains listless below the midline, currently at 33.82, backing the bearish scenario.

A daily closing below the rising trendline support at $1769 will confirm a bear pennant, opening floors towards two-month lows of $1761, below which the $1750 psychological barrier will come into play. Further south, mid-April lows around $1725 could come to the rescue of gold bulls.

Alternatively, if the buyers manage to find a strong foothold above $1794, the confluence of the 100-DMA and falling trendline support, then the June 18 highs of $1797 will be next on the bulls’ radars. The psychological $1800 level will then challenge the bullish commitments.

If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.

FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.

The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.

EUR/USD is holding onto the recent recovery above 1.1900, up for first weekly gain in four. US dollar ignores firmer Treasury yields on fears of the PCE inflation gauge confirming the Fed’s hawkish tilt. Risk appetite remains positive, as Biden’s stimulus joins EU-UK trade optimism. Fedspeak eyed as well.

GBP/USD holds on to the previous day’s weakness while easing to 1.3919 during a sluggish Asian session on Friday. Mixed updates on Brexit, Delta Plus covid variant keeps bears hopeful.

EUR/USD is holding onto the recent recovery above 1.1900, up for first weekly gain in four. US dollar ignores firmer Treasury yields on fears of the PCE inflation gauge confirming the Fed’s hawkish tilt. Risk appetite remains positive, as Biden’s stimulus joins EU-UK trade optimism. Fedspeak eyed as well.

XRP price saw a swift breach of the overhead supply barrier, flipping it into support. This move indicates the presence of buyers; therefore, it is likely Ripple will continue to head higher. After the recent upswing, Ripple might undergo a minor pullback before ascending.

Overall goods orders rise, April's total revised higher. Business spending slips, inhibited by product and material shortages. Manufacturing output scarcity, restrictions contribute to inflation.

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GLOBAL MARKETS-Global share markets rise as investors keep focus on inflation, jobs

Yahoo Finance 24 June, 2021 - 10:52am

  * British pound slips as BoE holds rates at all-time low 

  * German business sentiment at 2-1/2 year high 

  * Graphic: World FX rates https://tmsnrt.rs/2RBWI5E 

  By Chris Prentice and Tom Arnold 

  WASHINGTON/LONDON, June 24 (Reuters) - Wall Street stocks rose and global share markets edged higher on Thursday on supportive U.S. jobless claims data as investors reassessed Federal Reserve statements on inflation and looked to upcoming data for direction. 

  The U.S. dollar weakened, while sterling fell after the Bank of England kept its stimulus program unchanged and left its benchmark interest rate at an all-time low. 

  The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq opened at all-time highs, boosted by shares of Tesla and other top-shelf technology firms as data showing fewer weekly jobless claims pointed to a steady recovery in the U.S. labor market. 

  The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 246.39 points, or 0.73%, to 34,120.63, the S&P 500 gained 23.46 points, or 0.55%, to 4,265.3 and the Nasdaq Composite added 124.27 points, or 0.87%, to 14,396.00 shortly before noon EDT (1700 GMT). 

  "Jobless claims numbers came in a little high but looking week to week they’re still moving in the right direction," said Mike Loewengart, managing director of investment strategy at E*TRADE Financial. 

  The data is "another proof point that the economy is coming back to life, albeit maybe in a slightly bumpier fashion than some anticipated at this stage," he said. 

  The MSCI world equity index was up .1%, edging toward record highs hit earlier in June. 

  In Europe, the STOXX 600 gained 0.84%, bolstered by news of German business morale hitting its highest in 2-1/2 years. 

  Britain's FTSE 100 share index was up 0.5% after the Bank of England kept the size of its stimulus program unchanged and left its benchmark interest rate at an all-time low of 0.1%, as expected. 

  In Asia, markets made smaller gains. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan gained 0.3%, recovering from a one-month trough touched earlier this week, while Japan's Nikkei was unchanged. 

  Stock markets have whipsawed over the last week, feeling the after-effects of a surprise projection for Federal Reserve rate increases as soon as 2023, which knocked stocks, boosted the dollar and led to the flattening of the U.S. bond yield curve. 

  Investors are now pricing the first full U.S. interest rate rise for February 2023, compared with December 2022 previously. 

  Ten-year U.S. Treasury yields eased 1.4885%, continuing to hover below 1.5%, while government bond yields in the euro zone drifted lower, reversing earlier gains. 

  "Until bond yields break out in a sustainable fashion, in either direction, it remains very hard to determine which direction stocks are headed in over the near term," JPMorgan analysts wrote in a note. "Much continues to hinge on the upcoming growth data." 

  Germany's Ifo institute said its business climate index rose to 101.8 from 99.2 in May. A Reuters poll of analysts had pointed to a June reading of 100.6. 

  It followed the release on Wednesday of strong European manufacturing data. ISM manufacturing and U.S. non-farm payrolls data are due next week. 

  The U.S. dollar edged up against a basket of six other currencies but remained well below last week's two-month high as traders navigated conflicting signals from Fed officials on the timing of a withdrawal of monetary stimulus. 

  On Wednesday, two Fed officials said a period of high inflation in the United States could last longer than anticipated, just a day after Fed Chair Jerome Powell played down rising price pressures. 

  The euro was up 0.04% against the dollar. Against the Japanese yen, the dollar eased but held near a 15-month high of 111.11 touched earlier in the session. 

  The BoE's decision on Thursday was largely anticipated by economists polled by Reuters who expect the central bank will wait to see if a post-lockdown jump in inflation proves transitory and whether unemployment rises when the government scales back its job-protection scheme. 

  The British pound shed 0.4% against the dollar. 

  Oil prices were up, hovering near the previous session's three-year highs set amid drawdowns in U.S. inventories and accelerating German economic activity. 

  U.S. crude rose 0.37% to $73.35 per barrel and Brent was at $75.49, up 0.4% on the day. 

  Spot gold added 0.1% to $1,780.01 an ounce. U.S. gold futures gained 0.08% to $1,783.80 an ounce. 

  (Reporting by Chris Prentice; Editing by Dan Grebler) 

Some bullish traders may decide to take profits ahead of next week’s OPEC+ meeting, where the group may decide to increase output in August.

The Fed said that all 23 banks that took the tests easily passed. Lenders are expected to reveal their plans for dividends and share repurchases on Monday afternoon.

News and digital media giant to use special purpose acquisition company (Spac) to go public and to acquire Complex for $300m BuzzFeed will join a number of companies that have followed the Spac path, which does not require the participation of an underwriting financial institution or attract the same level of oversight as a traditional IPO. Photograph: Ted Shaffrey/AP BuzzFeed, the news, digital media and lifestyle company, has announced plans to become a publicly traded company through a specia

The athletic-wear company's stock has dropped 20% since peaking last month. Cowen analysts contend it's time to buy.

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U.S. stock benchmarks end mostly lower Wednesday, but with the Nasdaq Composite scoring its 16th record close in 2021, as investors focus on inflation and the Federal Reserve's promise to go slow in scaling back its support.

U.S. stock indexes set fresh records on Thursday and European shares closed near all-time highs, fueled by supportive U.S. jobless claims data and a breakthrough in infrastructure spending talks in Washington. President Joe Biden on Thursday embraced a bipartisan Senate deal to spend hundreds of billions of dollars on infrastructure projects, building roads, bridges and highways in an expanded effort to stimulate the American economy.

(Reuters) -As Federal Reserve policymakers begin an intense debate over when they should begin to pull back some of the massive support they are delivering to the economy, they are split over what poses the bigger risk: a still-large jobs deficit or a potential inflation shock. On one side are Robert Kaplan and James Bullard, the chiefs of the Dallas and St. Louis Fed banks, respectively. "Policymakers will have to take this new risk into account in the months and quarters ahead," Bullard told the Clayton Chamber of Commerce near St. Louis.

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U.S. stocks closed mixed on Wednesday after exhibiting strong gains earlier in the day, as investors continued to wrestle with the path of growth and inflation.

President Joe Biden's midday announcement that a bipartisan group of Senators had reached a deal to pass an infrastructure bill had little effect on the bond market. The bill will likely be neutral for interest rates, but could lead to a push for a broader bill later this year that could push rates higher, said Jim Vogel, fixed income strategist at FHN Financial Capital Markets.

(Bloomberg) -- The first $500 billion in assets took the European ETF market about 16 years to grow. The second $500 billion took more than three years. Eighteen months later, the next milestone is already in sight.A deluge of inflows has swelled assets in the region’s exchange-traded product industry to $1.475 trillion, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.If this year’s rate of growth is sustained, the market should top $1.5 trillion in August. Predictions it will pass $2 trillion by 2025 n

Markets have calmed notably since the Federal Reserve surprised investors last week by saying it could start raising short-term interest rates by late 2023, earlier than expected.

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(Bloomberg) -- Stocks climbed to an all-time high as President Joe Biden’s bipartisan $579 billion infrastructure deal added to optimism the economic recovery is taking hold. The dollar fell.Companies that stand to benefit the most from a rebound in activity outperformed -- with financial and energy shares leading gains in the S&P 500. Caterpillar Inc., the world’s biggest maker of mining and construction equipment, jumped alongside raw-material producers such as U.S. Steel Corp. and Nucor Corp.

NEW DELHI (Reuters) -Indian Oil Minister Dharmendra Pradhan on Thursday again urged the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries to phase out crude output cuts as high prices are stoking inflation. India, the world's third biggest oil importer and consumer, relies on overseas supplies for over 80% of its oil needs. Indian retail fuel prices have jumped to a record high due to higher oil prices and heavy local taxes.

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(Bloomberg) -- Investors are witnessing the “biggest U.S. fantasy trip of all time” in the stock market thanks to a clueless Federal Reserve, speedy stimulus and surprising success with Covid-19 vaccinations, according to Jeremy Grantham, financial historian and co-founder of the investment firm GMO.It’s been just over a year since the last stock market crash, which resulted in a 35% drop from peak to trough, followed by the fastest rebound in history.“The Covid crash is quite distinct from a cl

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