MLB Division Series Odds, Expert Picks, Predictions: Best Bets For Brewers vs. Braves & Giants vs. Dodgers (October 12)

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The Action Network 12 October, 2021 - 02:47pm 2 views

Does Joc Pederson wear pearls?

A pearl necklace can be an ideal accessory for many formal occasions. ... Pederson has been spotted wearing a pearl necklace during games this postseason, and he's been having success while wearing it. On Monday, he collected his third hit in as many pinch-hit at-bats this postseason and his second home run. Sporting NewsWhy Joc Pederson wears a pearl necklace during Braves games: 'It's a mystery for everyone'

Why does Joc Pederson have pearls on?

According to Pederson, the pearls were an impulse purchase. “I just saw the pearls and I was, like, 'You know what? That looks cool,'” he said. About the home run, which came on a high fastball that didn't appear to be a good pitch to drive: “I guess I'm just a pretty good player. ajc.comJoc Pederson is a postseason pearl for Braves

As of this writing, teams have not announced starting pitchers for three of the four NLDS spots. Sports books have released odds based on projections, however, and those align with ours.

Below are our best bets for Tuesday’s MLB playoff games based on those projections, but please remember to keep tabs on odds as pitching plans potentially change, which you can do via our up-to-the-minute MLB odds page.

Here are our picks for Tuesday’s trio of games.

McCullers carved up the Chicago lineup in Game 1, and Rodón has experienced some shoulder discomfort at the end of the season. However, given his rest, both Rodón and Tony La Russa are confident Rodón should be able to get back to his velocity levels in the earlier part of the season.

McCullers was brilliant in Game 1 but still has an awful walk rate at 11.1% this season. The White Sox have some patient hitters, like Yoán Moncada and Yasmani Grandal, who have propelled the Sox to the fourth-best walk rate in baseball.

Given how loud Guaranteed Rate Field can get in a playoff game, I think it is very likely the crowd rattles McCullers and he will put more batters on base via the free pass.

Rodón is a phenomenal strikeout pitcher. Of course, there is the concern with his shoulder, but even with that issue, he went five shutout innings with four strikeouts against the Cincinnati Reds on September 29. The Astros struck out 16 times in their loss Sunday, so look for Rodón to keep that trend going.

The aggressive option is to use Corbin Burnes on short rest in Game 4 and Brandon Woodruff on full rest in Game 5 if they make it that far. The conservative approach would be to try to win Game 4 without the strength of your team — its top three pitchers — and to save two of them for Game 5.

If Burnes (2.01 xERA, 2.30 xFIP) doesn’t start on short rest, lefty Eric Lauer (3.92 xERA, 4.26 xFIP) would seemingly fit the bill. Lauer offers a five-pitch mix, and each offering except for his fastball (44.6% usage) returned a positive pitch value this season.

The Brewers have realized the need to tweak his pitch mix, and those advancements are already underway; the fastball usage is trending downward, and the slider has become a much more significant part of the plan:

Lauer didn’t deploy the slider this season until early July. Over his final 13 starts, it ranked second in his arsenal in usage (17.3%) and showed an average velocity (87.3 mph) more than two mph above its career norm.

While I give the Brewers the starting pitching advantage with Lauer facing Huascar Ynoa (4.30 xERA, 3.40 xFIP), I would still favor the Braves in this game, for the first time all series.

I have never been high on Ynoa. He’s a two-pitch guy (45.1% fastball, 48.2% slider) with shaky command (career 3.03 BB/9) whose high-octane fastball (average 96.5 mph) rates as slightly below average, likely due to mediocre spin (28th percentile).

Ynoa can throw the fastball all over the zone and locate his plus slider down and in to lefties (or down and away from righties), but that’s about it. He’s also a reverse spits pitcher as the slider is more effective against lefties (.210 xwOBA) than righties (.259):

The Brewers just haven’t come up clutch in this series. In the past two games — a pair of shutout losses — they are 0-for-15 with runners in scoring position and have left 14 men on base, continuing a recent trend of NL Central contenders in the postseason.

I would bet the Brewers at +114 or better on the moneyline, and +111 or better for the first five innings (F5).

We DO know that the Giants will be starting Anthony DeSclafani, and he’s been rock solid for San Francisco all year and a big part of why they surpassed expectations in so many ways.

DeSclafani isn’t a big strikeout guy, but he cut his walk rate by nearly four percent from a year ago, and the best way for the Dodgers’ offense to beat you is with its insane patience that ranked second in the majors in walk percentage.

The Dodgers could go with Walker Buehler here on short rest, but even if that’s the case, I trust DeSclafani more than the ace pitching at less than full strength.

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Brewers vs. Braves NLDS Game 3 Highlights (10/11/21) | MLB Highlights

MLB 12 October, 2021 - 06:04pm

The Giants did the little (and big) things to win Game 3 of the NLDS

Dodgers’ Walker Buehler will start NLDS Game 4 vs. Giants on short rest

True Blue LA 12 October, 2021 - 06:04pm

Game 4: 6:07 p.m. PT, TBS

Buehler threw 99 pitches in 6⅓ innings in Game 1 on Friday in San Francisco, allowing three runs in a loss, his first loss in 10 postseason starts. That start was his second straight on four days rest, something he’s done in 14 of his 34 starts this season. In his major league career only 27 of his 106 starts have come on four days rest, with the other 79 starts coming with five or more days off in between.

The five-game Division Series format lends itself to at least considering a starter on three days rest. With two days off built into the schedule, the Dodgers can turn to Game 2 starter Julio Urías on regular, four days rest in Game 5. But first they have to win Game 4.

“Everything is on the table,” manager Dave Roberts said after the Dodgers’ 1-0 loss in Game 3. “Our focus has to turn to tomorrow, and whatever it takes to win tomorrow, and then we’ll kind of pick up the pieces after that.”

Buehler had a 2.47 ERA and 3.16 FIP with 212 strikeouts this season, setting career highs in innings (207⅔) and starts (33). With his Game 1 start, his odometer is up to 214 innings on the year. So he’ll likely have some help in Game 4.

With an off day in between Games 4 and 5, the Dodgers can be aggressive with their bullpen. Blake Treinen and Kenley Jansen were the only Dodgers relievers to pitch on Monday, throwing 15 and 14 pitches, respectively, the only appearance over the last five days for both pitchers. The Dodgers will also have Tony Gonsolin available in some capacity should they need some length.

“Not sure what the full role is yet, but I’m just ready to go out there and throw,” Gonsolin said Monday. “And when Doc says I’m done, then I’m done.”

But first, the Dodgers will need innings from Buehler, something they’ve counted on all season.

“I think he’s going to do what he has all year long. He’s gonna throw the ball really well,” Albert Pujols said of Buehler Monday. “I know he’s coming out on short rest, but I think he’s gonna be pretty excited, and the fans are really gonna be really excited.”

3 Best Bets For Tuesday's MLB Playoff Games

The Action Network 12 October, 2021 - 02:45pm

As of this writing, teams have not announced starting pitchers for three of the four NLDS spots. Sports books have released odds based on projections, however, and those align with ours.

Below are our best bets for Tuesday’s MLB playoff games based on those projections, but please remember to keep tabs on odds as pitching plans potentially change, which you can do via our up-to-the-minute MLB odds page.

Here are our picks for Tuesday’s trio of games.

McCullers carved up the Chicago lineup in Game 1, and Rodón has experienced some shoulder discomfort at the end of the season. However, given his rest, both Rodón and Tony La Russa are confident Rodón should be able to get back to his velocity levels in the earlier part of the season.

McCullers was brilliant in Game 1 but still has an awful walk rate at 11.1% this season. The White Sox have some patient hitters, like Yoán Moncada and Yasmani Grandal, who have propelled the Sox to the fourth-best walk rate in baseball.

Given how loud Guaranteed Rate Field can get in a playoff game, I think it is very likely the crowd rattles McCullers and he will put more batters on base via the free pass.

Rodón is a phenomenal strikeout pitcher. Of course, there is the concern with his shoulder, but even with that issue, he went five shutout innings with four strikeouts against the Cincinnati Reds on September 29. The Astros struck out 16 times in their loss Sunday, so look for Rodón to keep that trend going.

The aggressive option is to use Corbin Burnes on short rest in Game 4 and Brandon Woodruff on full rest in Game 5 if they make it that far. The conservative approach would be to try to win Game 4 without the strength of your team — its top three pitchers — and to save two of them for Game 5.

If Burnes (2.01 xERA, 2.30 xFIP) doesn’t start on short rest, lefty Eric Lauer (3.92 xERA, 4.26 xFIP) would seemingly fit the bill. Lauer offers a five-pitch mix, and each offering except for his fastball (44.6% usage) returned a positive pitch value this season.

The Brewers have realized the need to tweak his pitch mix, and those advancements are already underway; the fastball usage is trending downward, and the slider has become a much more significant part of the plan:

Lauer didn’t deploy the slider this season until early July. Over his final 13 starts, it ranked second in his arsenal in usage (17.3%) and showed an average velocity (87.3 mph) more than two mph above its career norm.

While I give the Brewers the starting pitching advantage with Lauer facing Huascar Ynoa (4.30 xERA, 3.40 xFIP), I would still favor the Braves in this game, for the first time all series.

I have never been high on Ynoa. He’s a two-pitch guy (45.1% fastball, 48.2% slider) with shaky command (career 3.03 BB/9) whose high-octane fastball (average 96.5 mph) rates as slightly below average, likely due to mediocre spin (28th percentile).

Ynoa can throw the fastball all over the zone and locate his plus slider down and in to lefties (or down and away from righties), but that’s about it. He’s also a reverse spits pitcher as the slider is more effective against lefties (.210 xwOBA) than righties (.259):

The Brewers just haven’t come up clutch in this series. In the past two games — a pair of shutout losses — they are 0-for-15 with runners in scoring position and have left 14 men on base, continuing a recent trend of NL Central contenders in the postseason.

I would bet the Brewers at +114 or better on the moneyline, and +111 or better for the first five innings (F5).

We DO know that the Giants will be starting Anthony DeSclafani, and he’s been rock solid for San Francisco all year and a big part of why they surpassed expectations in so many ways.

DeSclafani isn’t a big strikeout guy, but he cut his walk rate by nearly four percent from a year ago, and the best way for the Dodgers’ offense to beat you is with its insane patience that ranked second in the majors in walk percentage.

The Dodgers could go with Walker Buehler here on short rest, but even if that’s the case, I trust DeSclafani more than the ace pitching at less than full strength.

How would you rate this article?

DISCLAIMER: This site is 100% for entertainment purposes only and does not involve real money betting.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800 GAMBLER. This service is intended for adult users only.

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