‘Study Newsom’s playbook’: what Democrats – and Republicans – can learn from California’s recall

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The Guardian 15 September, 2021 - 08:25pm 22 views

Who is the governor of California?

The current governor is Gavin Newsom, who has been in office since 2019. Thirty-nine people have served as governor, over 40 distinct terms; many have been influential nationwide in areas far-flung from politics. wikipedia.orgList of governors of California - Wikipedia

That winning strategy could have national implications for both Democrats and Republicans already looking ahead to the 2022 midterms.

“Democrats running in other parts of the country next year would do well to study Newsom’s playbook very carefully,” said Dan Schnur, a politics lecturer at several universities. “Newsom was able to take the Covid issue, which might have been a fatal weakness for him, and was able to turn it into a considerable strength.”

The Republican-led recall’s anti-mask, anti-vaccine stance was undercut by the rise of the Delta variant and a surge of infections that overwhelmed hospitals in California and around the US, said James Lance Taylor, a political scientist at the University of San Francisco.

“At least in some states, particularly blue states and some purple states, Newsom’s strategy has offered a model for Democratic candidates,” Taylor added.

That Newsom triumphed over the recall by such a large margin also placed him in an ideal position to run for national office in the years to come, Taylor said. The state saw a huge Covid surge last winter, and Newsom has had to live down major missteps including an initially slow vaccine rollout – but overall, the governor could make a national case that his pandemic leadership saved lives.

The recall has also exposed the potential limits of Trumpian politics in a post-Trump era, says Mindy Romero, founder of the Center for Inclusive Democracy, a non-partisan research organization. A more moderate candidate might have appealed to Democrats willing to try something new, a strategy that helped the Republican Arnold Schwarzenegger prevail over the Democrat Gray Davis in California’s last recall election, in 2003.

“A lot of people voted against the recall because they were fearful of a Larry Elder becoming governor,” she said. “It doesn’t mean they were happy with Newsom.”

Indeed, several voters the Guardian spoke with ahead of the election affirmed fears that California, under Elder’s leadership, could go the way of Florida and Texas. “I’m with a lot of people who might like to recall Gavin, but aren’t necessarily in favor of having Larry Elder in there,” said John Friedrich, a retiree living in Stockton, California, about an hour south of the capital, Sacramento.

“What we’ve learned from the recall is that Republicans aren’t ready for a post-Trump era. They are doubling down on Trump,” said Schnur, who has advised conservative candidates. “If they want to retake congressional majorities next year, that has potential to be a really big problem.”

But that the race even appeared close weeks before election day might be a lesson for Democrats in California, and nationally, that they will have to work hard to rally apathetic voters – especially minority voters who have long felt forsaken by their elected leaders.

When polls in August found that distracted and disengaged Democratic voters – especially Latino voters, who make up about 32% of eligible voters – could cost the governor his seat, Newsom’s campaign scrambled. “There was a mad dash to the end to speak to as many Latino voters as possible,” said Christian Arana, a vice-president of the Latino Community Foundation. “But what this election really showed was that outreach to Latino voters needs to happen early, and often.”

Votes are still being tallied in California and neither the final count nor demographic breakdowns are available yet. But according to calculations from Political Data Inc, only about 30% of ballots mailed to Latino voters were returned early, while ballots mailed to white voters had a 50% return rate. Fewer people tend to vote in special elections than in presidential elections or midterms, but in all cases, “turnout in elections is not representative of the population”, said Romero.

Read full article at The Guardian

Coronavirus most important issue among California voters, exit polling shows | TheHill

The Hill 16 September, 2021 - 07:00am

The New York Giants have been making a habit of getting off to slow starts, as they haven't posted their first win prior to Week 3 since the 2016 season. They've begun with at least two losses each of the last four seasons and started 0-5 twice in that span, including last year. New York will attempt to avoid a similar fate when it visits the Washington Football Team for an NFC East showdown on Thursday Night Football. The Giants kicked off the campaign with a 27-13 home loss to Denver last Sunday, while Washington dropped a 20-16 decision to the visiting Los Angeles Chargers.

Kickoff from FedExField in Landover, Maryland is set for 8:20 p.m. ET. Washington is a 3.5-point favorite in the latest Giants vs. Washington odds from Caesars Sportsbook, while the over-under for total points scored is 40.5. Before making any Washington vs. Giants picks, make sure to check out the expert NFL predictions from SportsLine's Mike Tierney.

A national sportswriter whose work appears in The New York Times and Los Angeles Times, Tierney has covered the NFL for decades and reported from seven Super Bowls. 

Tierney has used that experience to crush his NFL picks, going 187-147 against the spread the past three seasons. In addition, Tierney is an incredible 23-9-1 on his last 33 picks involving Washington. Anyone who has followed him is way up.

Now, Tierney has set his sights on Washington vs. Giants on Thursday Night Football and just revealed his NFL expert picks and predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see his picks. Here are several NFL odds and betting trends for Giants vs. WFT:

Some fans were calling for Washington to give Taylor Heinicke the starting quarterback job this season after his performance against Tampa Bay in last year's wild-card matchup. The product of Old Dominion threw for 306 yards and a touchdown while also running for a score in place of an injured Alex Smith as Washington got within five points of the Buccaneers before a late field goal in the 31-23 defeat. Those fans now get their wish as Heinicke will make his second career regular-season start and first since 2018 with Carolina.

Washington placed veteran quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick on injured reserve with a hip subluxation, which he suffered in the second quarter of his team debut on Sunday. Heinicke came on and performed well, helping Washington turn a seven-point deficit into a three-point lead before it relinquished it in the fourth. He completed 11-of-15 attempts for 122 yards and a TD pass to tight end Logan Thomas, who made one of his career-high six scoring catches last season against New York.

New York recorded only six victories last year, but two of them were versus Washington. In fact, the team's first two wins of 2020 came against the division rival, with the second igniting a four-game winning streak that put the Giants in contention for first place in the NFC East. Daniel Jones had one of the best rushing performances of his NFL career in the first win, gaining a team-high 74 yards on seven attempts.

The 24-year-old Jones has yet to lose in four meetings with Washington, as he registered two of his three wins as a rookie in 2019 against the club. He had the most productive effort in the NFL versus Washington in Week 16 of that season, throwing for 352 yards and five touchdowns in a 41-35 overtime victory. Jones had 267 passing yards against the Broncos last Sunday, his highest total since he recorded 279 in the 2020 season opener versus Pittsburgh.

Tierney is leaning under on the point total. He's also isolated a critical x-factor that makes one side of the spread hit hard. You can only see what it is at SportsLine.

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‘Study Newsom’s playbook’: what Democrats – and Republicans – can learn from California’s recall

CNN 15 September, 2021 - 08:24pm

That winning strategy could have national implications for both Democrats and Republicans already looking ahead to the 2022 midterms.

“Democrats running in other parts of the country next year would do well to study Newsom’s playbook very carefully,” said Dan Schnur, a politics lecturer at several universities. “Newsom was able to take the Covid issue, which might have been a fatal weakness for him, and was able to turn it into a considerable strength.”

The Republican-led recall’s anti-mask, anti-vaccine stance was undercut by the rise of the Delta variant and a surge of infections that overwhelmed hospitals in California and around the US, said James Lance Taylor, a political scientist at the University of San Francisco.

“At least in some states, particularly blue states and some purple states, Newsom’s strategy has offered a model for Democratic candidates,” Taylor added.

That Newsom triumphed over the recall by such a large margin also placed him in an ideal position to run for national office in the years to come, Taylor said. The state saw a huge Covid surge last winter, and Newsom has had to live down major missteps including an initially slow vaccine rollout – but overall, the governor could make a national case that his pandemic leadership saved lives.

The recall has also exposed the potential limits of Trumpian politics in a post-Trump era, says Mindy Romero, founder of the Center for Inclusive Democracy, a non-partisan research organization. A more moderate candidate might have appealed to Democrats willing to try something new, a strategy that helped the Republican Arnold Schwarzenegger prevail over the Democrat Gray Davis in California’s last recall election, in 2003.

“A lot of people voted against the recall because they were fearful of a Larry Elder becoming governor,” she said. “It doesn’t mean they were happy with Newsom.”

Indeed, several voters the Guardian spoke with ahead of the election affirmed fears that California, under Elder’s leadership, could go the way of Florida and Texas. “I’m with a lot of people who might like to recall Gavin, but aren’t necessarily in favor of having Larry Elder in there,” said John Friedrich, a retiree living in Stockton, California, about an hour south of the capital, Sacramento.

“What we’ve learned from the recall is that Republicans aren’t ready for a post-Trump era. They are doubling down on Trump,” said Schnur, who has advised conservative candidates. “If they want to retake congressional majorities next year, that has potential to be a really big problem.”

But that the race even appeared close weeks before election day might be a lesson for Democrats in California, and nationally, that they will have to work hard to rally apathetic voters – especially minority voters who have long felt forsaken by their elected leaders.

When polls in August found that distracted and disengaged Democratic voters – especially Latino voters, who make up about 32% of eligible voters – could cost the governor his seat, Newsom’s campaign scrambled. “There was a mad dash to the end to speak to as many Latino voters as possible,” said Christian Arana, a vice-president of the Latino Community Foundation. “But what this election really showed was that outreach to Latino voters needs to happen early, and often.”

Votes are still being tallied in California and neither the final count nor demographic breakdowns are available yet. But according to calculations from Political Data Inc, only about 30% of ballots mailed to Latino voters were returned early, while ballots mailed to white voters had a 50% return rate. Fewer people tend to vote in special elections than in presidential elections or midterms, but in all cases, “turnout in elections is not representative of the population”, said Romero.

‘Study Newsom’s playbook’: what Democrats – and Republicans – can learn from California’s recall

KPIX CBS SF Bay Area 15 September, 2021 - 08:24pm

That winning strategy could have national implications for both Democrats and Republicans already looking ahead to the 2022 midterms.

“Democrats running in other parts of the country next year would do well to study Newsom’s playbook very carefully,” said Dan Schnur, a politics lecturer at several universities. “Newsom was able to take the Covid issue, which might have been a fatal weakness for him, and was able to turn it into a considerable strength.”

The Republican-led recall’s anti-mask, anti-vaccine stance was undercut by the rise of the Delta variant and a surge of infections that overwhelmed hospitals in California and around the US, said James Lance Taylor, a political scientist at the University of San Francisco.

“At least in some states, particularly blue states and some purple states, Newsom’s strategy has offered a model for Democratic candidates,” Taylor added.

That Newsom triumphed over the recall by such a large margin also placed him in an ideal position to run for national office in the years to come, Taylor said. The state saw a huge Covid surge last winter, and Newsom has had to live down major missteps including an initially slow vaccine rollout – but overall, the governor could make a national case that his pandemic leadership saved lives.

The recall has also exposed the potential limits of Trumpian politics in a post-Trump era, says Mindy Romero, founder of the Center for Inclusive Democracy, a non-partisan research organization. A more moderate candidate might have appealed to Democrats willing to try something new, a strategy that helped the Republican Arnold Schwarzenegger prevail over the Democrat Gray Davis in California’s last recall election, in 2003.

“A lot of people voted against the recall because they were fearful of a Larry Elder becoming governor,” she said. “It doesn’t mean they were happy with Newsom.”

Indeed, several voters the Guardian spoke with ahead of the election affirmed fears that California, under Elder’s leadership, could go the way of Florida and Texas. “I’m with a lot of people who might like to recall Gavin, but aren’t necessarily in favor of having Larry Elder in there,” said John Friedrich, a retiree living in Stockton, California, about an hour south of the capital, Sacramento.

“What we’ve learned from the recall is that Republicans aren’t ready for a post-Trump era. They are doubling down on Trump,” said Schnur, who has advised conservative candidates. “If they want to retake congressional majorities next year, that has potential to be a really big problem.”

But that the race even appeared close weeks before election day might be a lesson for Democrats in California, and nationally, that they will have to work hard to rally apathetic voters – especially minority voters who have long felt forsaken by their elected leaders.

When polls in August found that distracted and disengaged Democratic voters – especially Latino voters, who make up about 32% of eligible voters – could cost the governor his seat, Newsom’s campaign scrambled. “There was a mad dash to the end to speak to as many Latino voters as possible,” said Christian Arana, a vice-president of the Latino Community Foundation. “But what this election really showed was that outreach to Latino voters needs to happen early, and often.”

Votes are still being tallied in California and neither the final count nor demographic breakdowns are available yet. But according to calculations from Political Data Inc, only about 30% of ballots mailed to Latino voters were returned early, while ballots mailed to white voters had a 50% return rate. Fewer people tend to vote in special elections than in presidential elections or midterms, but in all cases, “turnout in elections is not representative of the population”, said Romero.

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